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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (25799)	8/20/2003 10:27:42 AM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Arnold's Campaign is Flopping So Far __________________________ by Thomas Oliphant Published on Tuesday, August 19, 2003 by the Boston Globe THE BIG SURPRISE of the "campaign" for governor in California is what a boring retro bust it has been to date, with the quality level of "Legally Blond 2" and the box office appeal of "Gigli." So far, the inability of the recall election to generate content and its rapid destruction of its lifeblood -- buzz -- is making the only such farce that actually succeeded in American history -- that storied battle for the soul of North Dakota 82 years ago -- seem like riveting drama. It is the first development in the state in months that political consultants and their poll-driven candidates have been unable to blame on Gray Davis. Indeed, the campaign is failing so miserably to produce anything worth calling "news" -- even by California TV's car chase standards -- that Governor Davis actually received a modicum of attention as he explained his administration's recent measures that probably explain why California's electricity mess is less ridiculous than the one in the Northeast and Midwest. It's almost entirely Arnold Schwarzenegger's fault, or more precisely the consultants who created him, and those of us who follow politics should have spotted the telltale clue weeks ago -- the failure of "Terminator 3" to be much of a profit machine after another consultant-driven hype-orama that created far more costs than buzz. Ironically, Arnold's "candidacy" -- a decent promotional idea on paper -- has failed to push the movie much. In the rollout phase, Arnold's consultants failed to generate more than a few early days of decent pictures for the local TV stations to use with their initial script line: "Wow, Arnold is running!" They should have realized that TV demands more than that to actually cover a political campaign. They above everyone else should have realized that local TV out there has got two "news" events that are capable of crowding Arnold out in the ratings and thus in the coverage -- the Laci Peterson murder case and another story with a first-name ID, Kobe. Two more weeks of this and Arnold will be just another middle-aged white guy running for governor. And if his consultants -- the crowd that produced and directed the Pete Wilson show in the 1990s -- can't get the buzz back, and fast, the entire farce could conceivably throw away its one advantage -- the strong, clear, but still untested inclination of most Californians to toss out their governor less than a year after reelecting him. Perhaps the federal courts will help. Denial is a poor excuse for a response to the weekend's utterly predictable nonevent, the news from the eminently respectable Field Poll that Arnold is as yet no big deal. The Field people had the sense to wait 10 days or so before taking the first sampling in a period that mixed "Wow, Arnold is running!" with "What's Arnold offering?" Since the "wow" phase had been followed by absolutely nothing, no words and no good pictures, why should Arnold's consultants be surprised that he is treading water? The margin of error is always forgotten in today's political media, but the numbers indicate no discernible difference between the current support for Arnold (22 percent) and the backing for Democratic Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante (25 percent). If Arnold's consultants aren't careful, the most powerful story line could become the opportunity for the state to have a Latino governor to go with its exponentially growing Latino population, one who could accurately portray Arnold as having supported an initiative campaign to deny education and health benefits to the children of undocumented workers. The other news in the poll is also no surprise: There is a conservative vote out there. Currently, it is splitting evenly between State Senator Tom McClintock of Thousand Oaks and Los Angeles County zillionaire Bill Simon, who flopped in last year's regular election against Davis. Behind the horse race numbers are two interesting facts: Arnold is splitting the Republican vote (36 percent pro and anti among self-identified GOP voters); the constituency where he currently has a big advantage, 2-1, includes those who self-identify as nonpartisans. These latter are the weird people who think the state has immense problems and want practical solutions. The polling news has stopped Arnold's one behind-the-scenes maneuver -- to muscle Simon and former Olympics and baseball czar Peter Ueberroth out of the race. Simon can read the polls (his new radio ad calls Arnold a liberal), and Ueberroth is about to seize the initiative and offer a bipartisan solution to California's horrid budget mess that mixes spending cuts with tax increases. Indeed, Arnold's one headline-grabber last week -- naming investor Warren Buffett to cochair his "economic team" with Nixon-Reagan veteran George Shultz -- backfired when Buffett said (correctly) that the state's famous property tax limitations make no sense because they require too much reliance on sales, income, and capital gains taxes that soar and plummet with the economy and stock market. Arnold needs an agenda and fast. Otherwise his bromides could not only stall his own campaign but threaten the recall itself. We are told that Arnold loves children, hates taxes, and can't lose, but that isn't selling, especially on TV. © Copyright 2003 Globe Newspaper Company. commondreams.org

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (25799)	8/20/2003 11:41:57 AM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 89467

Some folks think 'we have it all under control' in Iraq... Message 19226331 It's nice to live in a fantasy world...Yet, Bin Laden and his subsidiaries are having a field day over in Iraq...They will do EVERYTHING in their power to insure that there is no lasting stability -- target our troops, target the U.N., target the power grid, target the pipelines, etc...Who will be blamed for it...? Who will end up paying dearly for it...? U.S. soldiers and U.S. taxpayers. Bush let the NeoCONS brainwash him into thinking this Iraqi adventure was necessary and going to be easy. So far he is delivering THE WORST foreign policy I've seen in my lifetime. Prepare for new levels of global terrorism and record U.S. deficits. Where's the real leadership when we need it...? IMO, General Wesley Clark may be able to save this country -- watch carefully in the next few months...he could become 'the Seabiscuit' of candidates to challenge Bush. If he runs, I think he'll come from behind and win.