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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon Koplik who wrote (7003)	8/23/2003 7:02:18 AM
From: macavity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

JAPAN. 10 Year Yields MONTHLY: share.esignal.com WEEKLY: share.esignal.com DAILY: share.esignal.com Could well be a major bottom in JPY yields. I continue to believe that a rise in yields is good for Japan, as it would signify that borrowers have finally found projects worth investing in. The only borrower has been the Govt that has kept rates low despite record borrowings by forcing taxpayers/savers to lend more and more for ever decreasing yields. This is also why I continue to believe that we have not seen the top in US Treasuries. When this cyclical (equity and economic) bull is over, and demand has still not re-appeared, then we will see the US Treasury issuing bonds to finance govt spending (as it is doing now), and the US Fed buying them with newly printed cash (my bet for the future). The Federal Reserve (USD-Asset holders) will take over the role of the Japanese Postal Savings Industry (JP Savers) to finance Government borrowings to re-generate demand, due to a collapse in private-sector demand/activity. As Japan financed from savings rather than from freshly-printed paper, we did not witness a decline in their currency with increased federal debt. The US (should it happen) will be different. I have just got a (full) IT buy signal for 30Y bonds -not confirmed yet by 10Y. Need 10Y yields < 4.318% If only YH (e-mini 30Y bond) was actually a liquid instrument rather than having 8/32 pt spreads. -macavity