SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: pezz who wrote (37327)8/20/2003 2:22:57 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 74559
 
Hello Pezz, I am in between flights, somewhere between there and here, with a few more hours to go before arriving HK by midnight.

I will most likely go to Beijing tomorrow, but am not yet sure.

<<Greatgodalmighty where do you get the ideas for this many positions?>>

I focus first on decode the macro truth, and pick the micro plays that fit the theme, then hedge a bit in case I am wrong.

I tend to not try to pick winners amongst the smaller of my micro plays, but evenly weigh my buy allocations, unless I am really and truly a believer. A small hiccup, when suffered, affects my psychology, even if I like to deny it, and can easily lead to more mistakes.

I feel, knock on wood and spinning in place three times, that my income/cap gain generating work is already complete for 2003, I get to keep my NAV gains, and all that remains is to count the chips, recount the chips.

Yes, I know I must now think about and prepare/position for 2004 and try to make sure the harvest of 2003 do not end up stored in a burning field, because there is no such thing as a purchasing-power volatility-proof null-position in our globalized world and our herethereeverywhere financial economy.

While I am amused about the changing % split between my capital-sourced income and my hourly-based work, I am curious and cautious about the new reality.

My time must be allocated in accordance with potential promise of 'utility', so I have been devoting more time to investment activities. I will no doubt get use to the idea that shuffling of capital here and there is taking precedence of ambling Jay there and here.

Chugs, Jay



To: pezz who wrote (37327)8/20/2003 6:57:39 PM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 74559
 
Hello Pezz, Last Night’s Report:

I arrived home at around midnight, and did the following confirmed trades:

(a) Shorted AEM Feb strike 15 covered calls @ USD 1.30/shr

(b) Shorted AEM Feb strike 12.5 puts @ USD 0.80/shr

(c ) Sold PAAS @ USD 10.06/shr, they were bought here Message 17591561 at USD 7.30/shr;

(e) Sold CHL @ 12.33, left over from 1998 purchase at USD 8.56.

Chugs, Jay



To: pezz who wrote (37327)8/20/2003 7:43:42 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Hi Pezz, I just got notified that some eager speculator took away my GFI at USD 10/shr. I can understand the eagerness, because GFI is trading north of 13/shr now.

I got the GFI via this trade:

Message 18811751
<<April 8th, 2003
(h) Purchased extra large wallop of Gold Field (GFI) at 10.06/shr
(i) Shorted extra large wallop of GFI October Call Strike 10 at 1.75
(j) Shorted extra large wallop of GFI October Put Strike 10 at 1.75>>

The put position was closed here Message 18997777 <<June 3rd, 2003>> at 0.85/option

Chugs, Jay



To: pezz who wrote (37327)8/21/2003 5:44:57 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 74559
 
Hello Pezz, Today's Report:

I sold LuJiaZui at USD 0.66/shr. I had bought it here Message 18113247 <<October 15th, 2002>> at USD 0.84/shr.

I am just cleaning house of deadbeats.

Chugs, Jay



To: pezz who wrote (37327)8/21/2003 6:53:54 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 74559
 
Hello Pezz, Another Report:

Broker notified me that a bunch of Hopewell Infrastructure W0608 warrant (HK.0951) finance.yahoo.com got deposited into my account in exchange for zero cash expenditure. These freebies are given to me for my holding of Hopewell Holdings shares finance.yahoo.com which I purchased here Message 18836407 <<April 15th, 2003>> at HKD 6.5/shr.

The share is now worth HKD 8.55 and the ‘10 for 1’ warrant is worth HKD 0.77/wrt, or HKD 0.077/shr.

Hopewell stands to win when the officialdom announces the ‘go’ on the 29 kilometer long bridge connecting Hong Kong, Zhuhai, and Macao, at upwards of 80,000 cars per day, HKD 150/car. Hopewell proposed the concept 20 years ago, and is the most experienced of all the bridge/road builders in Asia. Hopewell’s boss is also on friendly terms with both Beijing and Hong Kong officialdom.

Chugs, Jay



To: pezz who wrote (37327)8/25/2003 9:11:09 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Hello Pezz, As you remember, I sold the vast majority of my China/HK shares Message 19221008 in anticipation of the return of SARS.

I was a few days too early, as the shares sold mostly gained another 5% or so, and have given most of it back today, in one day.

Now, the serious selling by others should start, because nytimes.com "Central bank in China raises reserve requirement", meaning ...

Key points:
1) PBOC demonstrates its willingness to tighten by taking the draconian step of raising reserve requirement (RR) from 6% to 7%, thereby removing RMB150bn from the financial system.

2) This is on top of the policy of using administrative policy to limit total loan increase to only RMB2.8 trillion this year. This might result in a decline of 4.3% of loan growth for the rest of the year.

3) Though I do not expect PBOC to change its benchmark deposit and lending rate, tightening money supply would inevitably lead to higher inter-bank rate and bond yield. Of course, this is just what central bank desire.

4) I believe that the banking sector and the brokerage industry will feel the heat from PBOC tightening. Cyclical industries closely related to fixed asset investment will be hard hit. The government has also warned of blatant overheating in property, auto and basic material such as aluminum, steel, cement and glass.

5) Thus, take profit, until the screaming in the death-match arena dulls down to a whimper, and then wade back in through the muck and gore, and polish off the survivors.

Chugs, Jay



To: pezz who wrote (37327)8/25/2003 3:50:20 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Hello Pezz, Tonight’s Report:

I was not able to watch my hard earned gain dissipate further, and so I turned in the chips on this substantial trade Message 19129250 <<July 20th, 2003 … at USD 33/shr>> in exchange for USD 36.75/shr, to survive so that I can fight another day, and with NEM, there is always another day, so far. I still have quite a bit of unencumbered NEM in the galley.

BTW, I assure you that my thoughts are with your designated chip, NOOF, and noticed that it is stronger than before uk.finance.yahoo.com , indicating that WE shall not be denied our rightful gain :0)

Chugs, Jay



To: pezz who wrote (37327)8/26/2003 12:29:24 PM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 74559
 
Hello Pezz, Tonight's Report:
I unceremoniously put Baytex uk.finance.yahoo.com against the wall for non-performance of duty, i.e. sold at CAD 12.37/shr, bought here Message 19001321 <<June 4th, 2003>> at CAD 11.60/shr. It pays no dividend and makes no visible progress towards transformation into trust structure (my original reason for buying it).

Chugs, Jay



To: pezz who wrote (37327)8/27/2003 5:00:52 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Hello Pezz, Today’s Report:

I sold my all of my precious Zimbabwe Platinum at AUD 4.08 uk.finance.yahoo.com because my equally precious Impala Platinum is apparently successful in gaining control m1.mny.co.za and so my direct participation in Zimplat is no longer wise.

If you remember, my Zimplat was bought in two tranches in late April and early August Message 19175612 at an average price of AUD 3.58, netting AUD 0.50/shr.

This is on top and in addition to the AUD 1.47/shr earned off of this gamble earlier Message 18603576 . In any case, AUD 1.97 gain on a AUD 4.08 share is a good turn for 14 months elapsed time and 6.5 months of holding period.

Chugs, Jay



To: pezz who wrote (37327)8/27/2003 9:59:37 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 74559
 
Hello Pezz, Tonight's Report: I just scrambled to buy back a whole lot of Newmont Mining shares at USD 38.xx/shr, having sold them earlier at Message 19242440 USD 36.75/shr.

There is no shame in stock speculation, as there none in chasing girls.

Chugs, Jay