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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Lazarus_Long who wrote (46596)8/21/2003 8:23:09 AM
From: gypsees  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 57110
 
<The fact that you need for something to work doesn't mean it does.

How true. The key I think is not to "need" it to work too badly.

I had had the impression VIX works. Maybe it used to. But if it's permanently stuck below 25, what good is it?


I have not been a long time watcher of the vix and I need a lot more time before I feel confident using it but... The descending triangle it's been hammering out for the last few months has been, from my limited perspective, bearish for the vix and therefore bullish for equities. I don't think the vix being low is a good enough reason to expect the market to pullback. Overbought can become more overbought. But!.... If it ever finishes that triangle pattern.. I think that may be the ticket ;o)

The only question now is.. how to recognize that the pattern has been completed? I don't know yet. I'm still taking it day by day and watching. It isn't much help this time around, but hopefully next time it will be some use. I don't think I'd ever use it to make trading decisions. More of a market sentiment type thingie<g>

The fact that you need for something to work doesn't mean it does.

Sadly, I don't think anything at all works all the time;o(.. If it did, we'd all be rich and out on the beach with our margaritas instead of behind these pesky computers! But if you find the secret, be sure to share...<g>



To: Lazarus_Long who wrote (46596)8/21/2003 10:07:49 PM
From: gypsees  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 57110
 
I heard a guy on CNBC today say that the vix has only been considered low at 20 in the last 5 years and he thinks that isn't a valid level. He thought it would return to lower norms in the future. I don't have any idea if he was right or not but thought I'd mention it. Food for thought I suppose - or something else to research.