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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: At_The_Ask who wrote (79541)	8/21/2003 8:03:09 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

cmon Mish. The crowd loses. Paradoxically The Crowd is most often right. The crowd was right from 1990 to 2000. Isnt that most often right? The crowd is wrong at EXTREMES and way wrong. The crowd in the middle amplifies the move. I believe the crowd is way long here, not short. Look at the spoos contracts would you? cftc.gov I talked to someone on IHUB and they INSISTED that ONLY the large contract matter. They went nuclear long in FEBRUARY when the large contract went + for the first time in a hell of a long time. I disagreed and suggested that eminis/big contract all evened out. I can not say why this person was correct (I can only say that he was). Unfortunately I do not remember who it was. I want to see if that person is short now. The big contract played by the big boys is 57,000 contracts short. That is HUGE! Balance that out with RECORD high long interest in the EMINI. That makes the Rydex funds look like peanuts if I am not mistaken. 90K contracts long with shorts scrambling and small specks at all time high long position. hmmmmm As for the puts, I think most are hedges. On Minyanville today there was a different take. That the crowd was hugely selling options with the expectation that they will all go worthless. This is what has been dropping the Vix. At some point, I do not know what point, that rydex money will be correct. I have little doubt it will be correct from extremes bullishness that you see now. I do not know when. This is what I think: Just like at the bottom there were people that absolutely refused to sell no matter what. Eventually the market bounced. Now we have a situation where perhaps a certain set refuses to cover no matter what (rydex). Eventually they will be right. If you want to talk sentiment, look at %bulls vs % bears. Tons of this data is completely contradictory. Everytime the PC ratio falls the bulls say nothing. NOTHING. It got really low a couple times recently. When it turns back up, they scream: look at that PC ratio. What is happening clearly (to me anyway), is massive liquidity is being poured into the markets to prevent a collapse to get Bush re-elected. No more no less. How long that can work is anyones guess, but a whole slew of indicators has stopped working IMO. BP%, max pain (for the most part), PC ratios, VIX, and we have even seen some like Velo struggle with never ending wave 5 extensions for quite some time. I hardly think that any of that has anything to do with the amount of money or lack thereof in RYDEX. For NOW perhaps RYDEX is tracking fine, eventually it will die a death just like dozens of other indicators. M