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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (46658)	8/22/2003 2:15:57 AM
From: Lazarus_Long	Respond to of 57110

Except for one time, it never went above 20 until March '96. This during an OEX run from 220 to 320. It also stayed above 20 during the run up to the drops in April 2001 and October 2001. This leads me to agree with PG: The absolute level of VIX is much less telling than its difference from recent levels (measured by Wm%R and stochastics). stockcharts.com[g,a]daclnnay[d19940101,20030821][p][iLk14!Lh14,3]&pref=G Wm%R and stochastics are pretty noisy on that scale. I'll be back tomorrow.

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (46658)	8/22/2003 12:09:00 PM
From: Lazarus_Long	Respond to of 57110

I think the question on the floor is more like this: Are we seeing a return to more "normal" non-bubble levels of VIX where 20 would be a middling value, not an indication of overbought, or is 20 going to continue to be an indication of overbought? I think I'll answer in about 20 years. :-) Another way of looking at it is that as the long bull that started in Dec '95 kept going and going and going, people became increasing nervous. It kept going for another 4 1/2 years with VIX elevated reflecting the fear of a break (that "wall of worry"). With its general level elevated, 20, that used to be an oversold level, became instead an overbought level.