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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (37376)	8/22/2003 3:04:01 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Report on Bloomber that about 800 Trillion Yen moved from Euro to Yen in past few days, bringing Euro down. Expectation of a possible Euro intereest rate increase. ALos a forecast that Euro will be equal to $1.05 USD or parity.... ************** I think Jay has the right idea about currencies being bad places to hide. COmpanies that own real assets - like NEM, PD, oil & gas ,etc. seem to be much better places, but they tend to require a growing economy to realize their upside.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (37376)	8/22/2003 8:20:47 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay I can not agree with you more >> suspect USD will be a key consideration in my figuring, because my accounting base is in USD. I believe we are living through some of the most dangerous times for capital, <<< I see the recent FX move and mostly the exchaberated rise of the EUR as a way of financial punishment of the Europeans for their opposition to the war in Iraq. this week FX moves may signal for thinks to come If you take into account all the political statements since March April, emanating from FED and US Treasury you will realize what I mean. The same trick was done to the Fix Income market by spreading the notion of deflation only to reverse course due to a "CPI calculation inaccuracy" only to reverse itself on a dime. The 15% swing with in a matter of 6 weeks or so is am indication of things to come Again the key is China in this whole play and is beyond me that their approach is. I can only speculate that they agreed to hold on huge amounts of US assets to enable work for their citizen. I similarly think the same about India. Presently the US rein supreme military and financially and this will come IMHO to a bitter end with substantial turmoil and instability. The spark may be from Saudi Arabia or other ME players, but IMHO there is no way that a 10% of GDP twin deficit can continue for ever.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (37376)	8/23/2003 1:25:06 AM
From: marek_wojna	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<<<<The USD is still a global reserve currency, needs to be held aloft by its sponsors, namely the US, Japan, and China, so as to tap some balance sheets to finance the building of the next abracadabra>>. That explains why record internal & external deficits are not even noticed too much. Since I strongly oppose the view of AG that United States will offset loss of manufacturing jobs by creating "information age economy" (these information industry jobs are being exported even at the faster rate than manufacturing" Americans will soon loose the status of the # 1 consumer of the world. Will the dollar be able to keep the status quo then? Will the China and all other countries who have huge trade surpluses will still support the currency of the country which cannot afford to buy more of their goods? Solution is US will turn communist on economic front and soon will start dropping money from the planes to their public, not only to the chosen houses. On political platform they already surpass former Soviet Union in controlling their citizens so we are already halfway there.