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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (11133)	8/22/2003 12:46:36 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95632

I thought the timing of the announcement was quite good. After 9 "super heated" days of gain, the market looked like it might be ready to "rest" a little today. If we look at a few snips from Briefing.com, we can see the sequence of events as follows: <08:25 ET S&P futures vs fair value: -1.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0. The futures market weakens a bit and continues to indicate a slightly lower open for the cash market. Given today's absence of economic reports and a limited amount of earnings and corporate news, today promises to be a relatively uneventful session.> We were heading for a slightly lower open and an "uneventful" session. Then 6 minutes later, INTC decided to speak - they felt they had important enough news they couldn't wait for their mid-quarter update about 2 weeks away. 08:31 ET Intel guiding revs above consensus (INTC) 26.39: Co announces that Q3 business is trending above expectations. Consequently, co raising Q3 revenue outlook to $7.3-$7.8 bln vs previous guidance of $6.9-$7.5 bln -- Reuters Research consensus $7.26 bln. Co's Intel Architecture business is generally trending higher across all geographies and channels while demand for communications products remains soft. Gross margin is expected to be 56%, plus or minus a couple of points, compared to previous expectation of 54%, plus or minus a couple of points. All other expectations are unchanged. Co will hold a call this morning at 10 ET.> Now instead of an "uneventful" session, we have an "eventful" session. Just 14 minutes later, the picture was entirely different. <08:45 ET S&P futures vs fair value: +5.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +19.0. The futures market got a sizeable boost from INTC's upward Q3 revenues guidance. As a result, the cash market looks set to open noticeably higher. The bond market has weakened in the face of the strengthening futures, with the 10-year note now down -1/32, bringing its yield up to 4.49%.> I wonder how the "shorts" felt this morning - finally a day when they might get some money back and INTC decides to fire a "silver bullet" 45 minutes before the market opens. I would say the timing of that announcement was most apropos for the bulls. We must keep this market going up you know, and what better way to supplement all the other forces at work to cause higher stock market prices than to have a few big companies like INTC waiting in the wings to chime in at just the right moment with an upgrade. It was a mighty upgrade too you know - the lower end of the revenue range was raised by 5.8 percent and the higher end was raised by 4 percent. Such big numbers - couldn't wait 2 weeks for announcement.:) Don

To: Return to Sender who wrote (11133)	8/23/2003 12:04:17 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95632

AUGUST MARKET TURNS frontlinethoughts.com While most people view the last 2 weeks of August as vacation weeks, over the last 16 yrs important turns have taken place then: August 25,1987 - the exact top prior to the crash.. August 23,1988 - low has never been returned to.. August 24,1995 - low has never been returned to.. August 19,1998 - top preceding 18% plunge in 2 weeks.. August 31,1998 - important market bottom.. August 31,2000 - 2 days before all time high.. August 24,2001 - end of rally ,market drops 22% in under a month.. August 22,2002 - exact rally top, market drops 21% in under a month. (Courtesy of Peter Eliades of Stock Market Cycles.) Four out of the last five years have seen a major turn in August. As I glance over my shoulder at the screen, I notice that we are near the highs for this run. Just food for thought.