Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (257247)	8/22/2003 12:53:09 PM
From: Giordano Bruno	Respond to of 436258

It's your deal... 66.113.150.142 You may shuffle as needed. -g-

To: yard_man who wrote (257247)	8/22/2003 12:58:39 PM
From: Trumptown	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

gap filled, 1776 holding, doji on the daily...points to a close higher than we are at the moment...maybe I gotta buy them Qs back... -ng

To: yard_man who wrote (257247)	8/22/2003 2:02:11 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

I don't mind criticism. Lord knows I get enough from my former Mother. She disinherited me when pd fell from $190 to $163. Looks like I'm back in the family today. <G>

To: yard_man who wrote (257247)	8/22/2003 2:49:34 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Sinclair I am watching a major contradiction taking place in front of my very eyes. It was there yesterday and it is there again today. It was easy to see yesterday but today is hidden behind the range of the day so far in US Treasury 30 year bonds. That contradiction is significant selling in US Treasury bonds camouflaged by US dollar strength. Continued liquidation of the long bonds reveals that there is a hidden supply problem in the general bond market. The US dollar is having its strongest weekly gain versus the Euro in the last 30 months yet the US treasuries are being sold. That cannot be explained by the economic recovery figures at this depressed level of the bond market In communication with Warren Pollack last evening, we exchanged ideas on this subject. Warren has an interesting take. According to Warren, who has good contacts in these markets, this bear in the bond and bull in the dollar contradiction is two fold. He admits that there is a camp that is bull on the dollar because of US economic figures. But he sees this demand strong at lower than yesterday and today's strong dollar market. He feels that major intervention is taking place in the dollar first by the US Treasury via the Exchange Stabilization Fund in the area of up to USD 20 billion because of a threatened overhang of US Treasury instruments that is headed there for sale. Secondly, he feels the US dollar is being massaged along with this by other than the US Treasury sources as a means of dressing up their US Treasury position again for sale. With a hoped for short covering panic in the dollar, this second source would hedge the US dollar massively into that short covering and liquidate US Treasuries held. Strangely enough the strength in the US dollar has more to do with an operation to liquidate US Treasuries than it does with anything else. You can see and smell this possibility by a close examination of the two markets. Recently the US long bond has dropped from 123 to 101 and rallied back to 106 16/32. The total drop today is 16.5 over 123 or 7.5%. The US dollar has recently recovered from its low of 92.38 to a high today of 99.03 or a 7.2% gain. Since the dollar was well on the skids before the bonds broke, in terms of the bonds value in dollars, for all practical sense the dollar rally has cranked the bond prices right back up to their high. Although the treasury and possibly the Fed feels this will satisfy the non-US holders of US bonds, you and I know the mentality of the marketplace as well as either the Secretary of the Treasury or the Chairman of the Fed. Those bonds are now certain to be liquidated and there is the contradiction. Even if some of the bonds were held, those that have not hedged the dollar value would be out of their minds not to. So here we are. Right back at the top of the bond market and in all probability now the top of the dollar recovery market or soon when the shorts begin to panic. So what does that mean to the gold trader. Just this IMO. Watch the Power Down Trends now like a hawk watches a slow moving mouse. Begin to act if that is your intention. Do not use credit. Personally, I have started my line of repurchase in gold futures and am bidding in the gold futures option market. I know full well I am staring at a neckline you can see in gold's 45 minute chart. I am a strictly disciplined pro, knowing what to do and how to do it if the gold neckline breaks down under me. You need more safety both in instruments and procedures but I promised to tell you what I was doing when I am doing it. There is a possibility we are near or have just seen the completion of a manipulation - pardon me "stabilization" of the century in the US dollar to hold of a disaster in derivatives that is happening and will accelerate if the most terrifying H & S Neck Line in 45 years is broken in US Treasury long bonds. That line is the neckline on the whole breakdown of the US Treasury market. I am willing to wager that the bond holders will not be satisfied and will attempt to run out on the accomplishment of retrieving their high values in the US bond market as they have today due to the dollar rally. I certainly would take my leave. I need to place myself in their head and I see no love for the USA there. Do you?