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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (11157)	8/22/2003 11:59:03 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Respond to of 95998

>> The last couple of weeks really remind me of the 1999/2000 area - nobody saw anything they didn't like back then and the same thing exists today. Don, a couple of observations. 1- In 2000 the hope was for increasing revenues, and that hope was dashed because revenues shrunk. Hence the crashing disappointment. This time, same hope, but the revenue will actually increase. So no disappointment or crash. Until the revenue hits a ceiling again - many moons from now. 2- in 2000, the bull market had been raging for over 2 years. Had drawn $trillions. IPO's had added tremendously to the share count. Day-trading was rampant. So now even a simpleton is aware of what constitutes a bubble. No it isn't high P/E. It is the fact of everyone being fully invested already. When the pyramid runs out of fresh recruits, the scheme collapses. So this time, when the IPO's proliferate. Trading volume increases. And total stock values increase by several $trillion - much faster than aggregate income. That's the bell tolling at the top. Until then, onwards and upwards. And cheers to the long-suffering longs. Sarmad

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (11157)	8/23/2003 12:11:23 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95998

RE: "The last couple of weeks really remind me of the 1999/2000 area..." May I suggest you look at JDSU. It has rallied recently to the $3.5 to $4 range. Somehow, that doesn't "remind" me of the 1999/200 high of $120. Which stock on your list shows signs of matching SDLI's rise from $8 in 1998 to $900 in 2000 (acquired by JDSU)? What is really interesting was that employees of SDLI were reluctant to sell at $900 because they believed it would go much higher. I bought some ASYT in 1998 for ~$5 and in 2000 it hit $134. I didn't trade my EGLS for CMOS when they were both $10 in late 1998/early 1999. EGLS went to $36 in 2000, CMOS to $170. I guess, I don't agree with your "as good as it gets" statement. 25 to 45% is nothing compared to 17 and 27 baggers!

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (11157)	8/23/2003 8:36:18 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95998

Don, The last couple of weeks really remind me of the 1999/2000 area - nobody saw anything they didn't like back then and the same thing exists today You certainly didn't expect INTC to have a stellar earnings report and then the market to go up, did you? Using your 2000 example, AMAT's stock started heading down in March, and yet the AMAT the company was continuing to post record revenues and profits months later in the year, all the while heading down.....that turned out to be entirely rational. And many companies have gone absolutely nowhere during this rise(SUNW, JDSU). The best companies are rising in this market, the way it should have been in 99/2000. BK