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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (11170)	8/23/2003 4:17:13 PM
From: BWAC	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95637

Seriously one question to all this bullishness that I'd like to have answered. WHO is going to buy all the finished end retail product manufactured by these fine technologies. Case in point: The Charlotte NC metro area has been a fine economic area to live for years. Currently 5 of the 6 surrounding counties have unemployment rates over 10%. The numbers have doubled since January of this year in many instances. Forecast for August is for each of these counties to see rises due to some large manufacturing closures and bankruptcies. One being Pillowtex. One county is talking 14%. Now this isn't in the boonies. And it only counts those still getting benefits that haven't given up. 3600 of these affected people begin lining up the prior night to interview the next morning for the new SuperWalmart offering 200 low paying jobs. 5400 people recently attended a job fair held at the Speedway. In 95 degree heat, held outside, on pavement. Total low paying jobs available from the 150 companies that were begged to participate by local government? 400. Counties to the coast in rural areas are almost all over 11%. Some as high as 14%. Counties to the west in the mountains? I think they quit counting at 14%. So who's gonna buy the end finished products when credit cards and unemployment benefits run dry? Momentum investing, charts, trend lines, and 17baggers aside. Whats going to happen when the chickens above come home to roost? Because the living wage type jobs are not coming back to this segment of the population anytime soon. And the drag it will create will hinder another huge segment of people in the next socio-economic class up the rung. So again I ask, who's going to buy the end finished products and how are they going to afford it. Or does the chart say that all just doesn't matter?

To: Kirk © who wrote (11170)	8/23/2003 5:19:14 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 95637

Yes, over the short term(the last 2 weeks) I made a big mistake. That happens - it isn't the first time for me and I know it won't be the last. I do really believe we are going up on a new bubble. I have already agreed to this in several posts, one of the most recent was in the post to Sarmad about the NASDAQ going to the 2000 range in 3 to 4 months - and I suggested it could even be sooner. We will have some "ripples" going up the front side of the bubble. <IF you REALLY believe this, then isn't it (lack of a better word but not meaning to insult) "foolish" to not be fully invested like Cary or at least have a partial position as I and the AIM folks do?> If you are only interested in the long term like Cary, IMO now is the time to be fully invested. If you are trying to play the "ripples" on the front side, then you go in and out of the market - sometimes you make the right choice and at other times the wrong choice. Who makes out better in the end? - the ones who try to "play" the "ripples" or those that don't. When the peak is reached and we start down the other side of the bubble, each individual who played the "ripples" can add it up and see whether he/she won or lost compared to the long term buy and hold. Of course whether you are a "ripple" player or a long term buy and hold person, each type of investor must find the top. Going down the other side of the bubble(unless you are short) is no fun. Don