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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (37404)	8/23/2003 10:36:08 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Haim, I dash this off to you before the beach. Typhoon #1 flag is up, soon to be upgraded to #3. <<do you have another solution if there will be a real power vacuum and infighting ?>> ... No. Just slog it out until either money well runs dry, morale tap gets exhausted, the political screaming becomes too loud, or a new reality dawns on the region of concern making intervention not possible. <<Could you imagine the turmoil resulting from a power vacuum in Saudi Arabia?>> ... Yes, but I lack enough imagination to be truly scary. <<Would world powers just stand by at a time that oil fields will be set ablaze as a result of fighting between various radical groups?>> ... uncharted territory, but then that is what world wars are for, to clear away ambiguity and to start over. <<This would be a complete act of self destruction for the modern economies due to the acute rise in energy prices>> ... yes, certainly. <<therefore if such scenario will evolve they will step in before major destruction occur>> ... perhaps, but I doubt they will be able to change things much, because for the other side, the fight is forever, as opposed to until exhaustion. <<I simply do not see any other solution as ill conceived as it may be>> ... here I am the optimist. Rest assured that there will be a solution. There always is. Just not what we expect, am always happy with, and if not acceptable, then there will be another solution again. <<I do not think that it will really come to the extreme situation I have mentioned before were world powers will need to enter /occupy Saudi Arabia>> ... there only needs to be the fear of extreme situations to trigger chains of events and set clockworks working. <<Consider Iran ...>> Iran was not a swing producer of oil. In any case, amongst the factors to take into account for 2004, besides the leading economies' health, the various deficits, the paper money deluge, the et cetera and the so on and so forth, we need to consider the trigger to market clearing that Saudi Arabia can be. Chugs, Jay