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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (11201)	8/24/2003 1:47:41 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 95650

<Yes, but considering that they are about 10% short of peak revenue and they say the recovery has yet to begin, it makes me wonder how high it will be when we do get a recovery.> That, of course, is the key question - one that we would all like an answer to. Your post does a nice job of highlighting a couple of factors that drives revenues for companies like INTC(actually for many companies in other businesses as well). First, there is a constant improvement in performance of the "technology" that is offered to the consumer. We all have "war stories" of what we bought, way back when. Mine is that I bought in 1982 an Apple II+ with 64K of memory, a 14 inch "black and white display", and a dot matrix printer for $4000. That was really living back then. Now of course, I couldn't buy that anymore, but if I could, it might be worth $50, but even that is probably too high. Second, there are many more things to buy now, one example being the digital camera - other examples abound. So what does that sum up to? - it says that we can buy more "technical things" with more performance now than we could in the past - it is an ongoing process that will continue into the future. However, we all know that for this process to work, these "technical things" have to be made for a price that the mass consumer can purchase. Here is where "the rubber meets the road" for businesses like INTC(obviously almost all businesses need to make something the customer can afford and will pay for). I have made a rather long-winded post that doesn't say much that we don't all know, but I was trying to summarize the forces that will ultimately decide how much further INTC revenues will grow when we get a recovery. I don't have a clue as to what that number will be in the next 5 years, however, we can review what it has been in the past 4 years as just listed in the post you responded to - in 1998 total revenues were 26.3B, in 2002 they were 26.8B. That is a 2 percent increase. Do we project that forward and say that in 2006 we will be up another 2 percent to 27.3B?:) Let's look at it another way. In the first 2 quarters of this year, their revenue was 6.8B each quarter or 13.6B for the first half of 2003. Now let's use their recent revised number as 7.5B. Add that to 13.6 and we get 21.1B through the first 3 quarters. Another 7.5 for the 4th quarter would get us to 28.6B, or if the number dropped back to 6.8, the final number would be 27.9B. Don