Clark knows decision time is near
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BY PAUL BARTON
Posted on Sunday, August 24, 2003
WASHINGTON — Like a well-planned but risky military operation, the presidential candidacy of retired Gen. Wesley Clark of Little Rock is rapidly approaching the go or no-go point.
Clark, former NATO supreme allied commander, has promised a decision around Labor Day on whether he will run for the White House in 2004, and there is still the potential for him to pull off a shocker. The shock would be if he decides not to run, many political observers say. "I still think the water is warm," said Democratic activist Donna Brazile, who was Al Gore’s campaign manager in 2000.
Added New Hampshire Democratic activist George Bruno, a Manchester attorney, "I think there is plenty of room for him, particularly with the circus going on in California. People still aren’t focused on the presidential race."
Readings are the same in Iowa, the other site of a key early contest in next year’s nomination fight. Des Moines pollster Ann Selzer, who runs the Iowa Poll, said there is a sense that Clark would be an unconventional candidate if he got in. "There is always room for a rule-breaker, if he does it right," Selzer said.
Political analysts say Clark has seemed too much like a candidatein-waiting these past five months to back out now. It has been a time marked by dozens of appearances on national television news shows — six to 10 a week, according to his staff — as well as scores of Clark stories in national and regional publications. Add to that the seemingly spontaneous generation of several Internet-based draft-Clark movements.
To time his decision to Labor Day may be significant. The second televised debate among the Democratic candidates is scheduled Sept. 4 at the University of New Mexico. If Clark is a declared candidate by then, he would be allowed to participate, a spokesman for the Democratic National Committee said. And yet the chance he won’t run still exists, Clark insists repeatedly. He could still say thanks, but no thanks.
‘ ONE BITE AT THE APPLE ’
"I’ve heard he is dying to run, but his wife doesn’t want to," said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato. Clark has acknowledged Gert’s concerns but says he is confident his family will support whatever decision he makes. In response to questions, he said Friday that it would be "a joint decision" made with his wife.
If he decides not to do it, it would crush his rapidly growing army of supporters. They remain starry-eyed over the persona and resume of the 58-year-old career Army officer and are convinced voters would find him an intriguing alternative to the already crowded field of Democratic presidential candidates.
A decision not to run might also shut the door on Clark’s future political opportunities.
Considering the buildup that has taken place, "he would sink beneath the surface of American politics," said Calvin Jillson, head of the political-science department at Southern Methodist University. "Everybody gets one bite at the apple. This is his bite." To abandon a race now "would stain him a little bit," said Chuck Todd, editor of The Hotline, a widely cited Washington political newsletter. "It’s almost like crying wolf." Others doubted the consequences would be quite that severe, but all agree the stakes are getting higher as Clark’s self-imposed deadline approaches. And most say conditions surrounding the 2004 race leave open the possibility for Clark to have a major impact on the race.
CAN CHALLENGE BUSH
Foremost among those conditions is the failure of any of the current nine candidates to show "breakout strength," said Drake University political analyst Dennis Goldford.
Further, the ongoing dangers inherent in America’s war on terrorism and the occupation of Iraq offer an opportunity to any Democrat with strong national security credentials. Clark has won admiration among many Democratic activists for his vigor in challenging Bush administration policies.
Typical of Clark’s remarks on Iraq was one he gave last week on CNN: "We went into Iraq under false pretenses. There was, you call it deceptive advertising. You would be taking him [Bush] to the Better Business Bureau if you bought a washing machine the way we went into the war in Iraq."
On other issues, Clark has made it clear that he supports affirmative action and abortion rights. He would call for a review of current policy on homosexuals in the military but says the decision should still rest with military commanders. On the economy, Clark has criticized Bush's tax cuts as too tilted toward upper-income groups.
Brazile, the former Gore campaign manager, likes what she’s hearing. "We’ve got nine players on the field, but we don’t have a pitcher," she said. "We need someone who can go toe-to-toe with the president on national security."
At a meeting of Utah Democrats earlier this month, Brazile said, "When I mentioned Clark’s name, I practically got a standing ovation."
Many have likened the fawning over Clark to the interest that former chairman of the joint chiefs and now Secretary of State Colin Powell stirred in 1996 before deciding not to run.
Others say Clark’s "force of personality" is not that strong. "He is not Arnold Schwarzenegger," one Democratic consultant said.
‘ STILL ROOM IN THE FIELD ’
If Clark joins the race, he will still wear the label of long shot, especially considering his late start in putting together organizations in Iowa and New Hampshire, the two states that are focus of most activity now. "I think it would be a huge uphill battle for him," said Jennifer Donahue, political analyst at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at St. Anselm College in Manchester. But at the same time she added that "there is still room in the field" and Clark might be able to satisfy voters’ search "for authenticity, for someone who is genuine and speaks from the heart." Said Bruno, former state Democratic chairman in New Hampshire, "The window is open, but it won’t be open much longer. People are looking for a Democratic nominee that can put the national-security issue behind them and move on to domestic concerns." Early polling shows Clark is at 1 percent or 2 percent in New Hampshire. While not impressive, he is even with Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina. The polling data from Iowa is even more spotty, but a late-July poll done by Selzer’s company showed that 62 percent of Iowans were still fuzzy about Clark. "We don’t know much about him," Selzer said.
OR IS IT TOO LATE?
David Yepsen, longtime Iowa political observer at The Des Moines Register, warned that Clark would have tough sledding. "I’ve never seen a guy get in this late and pull it off," he said of January’s Iowa caucuses.
Yepsen also said Iowa caucus participants tend to be pretty dovish. "These caucusgoers are pretty liberal bunch of folks and not the type interested in backing a military officer."
However, Peverill Squire, political analyst at the University of Iowa, said the field is "so fluid" that there is still an opportunity for Clark "to come in and make an impact."
Squire and others wonder if Clark, who has never run for elective office before, "can take the nastiness that comes with being a candidate in American politics."
Similarly, Todd, editor of The Hotline, said Clark will have to make the transition "from being a cable-television candidate to an on-the-ground candidate."
While Clark says that he has put up with plenty of tough conditions in more than 30 years of Army life, there is still nothing quite like the travel and other stresses of a political campaign, including the constant charges and countercharges that have to be dealt with. "I don’t know if he is going to be a good candidate," Todd said.
A prominent consultant to another Democratic candidate said on background that Clark would risk his chance to be a vice presidential candidate by getting into the race. It could "tick off" those who might otherwise want him on their ticket, he said.
Further, the consultant wondered where Clark was going to get the money and organization to compete. "If it is too late for [Delaware Sen.] Joe Biden, it’s well too late for Clark."
But Bruno and other fans of Clark say the various draft-Clark movements already give him something of an organization on which to build.
Sabato, the University of Virginia political scientist, noted that Clark has a strong following of people "who are transfixed by Wesley Clark," although he suspects the draft-Wesley Clark Internet movement may have been more planned and coordinated than has been told. "I think the real story of this is yet to be written. I don’t believe in spontaneous political movements."
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