North Korea to Face Pressure in Talks to Scrap Nuclear Plans
By JOSEPH KAHN
nytimes.com
EIJING, Aug. 26 — North Korea will come under intense diplomatic pressure to scrap its nuclear weapons program on Wednesday as the United States, North Korea and its four neighbors begin unusual six-party negotiations on how to resolve the Korean arms crisis.
The talks, scheduled to take place over three days in the Chinese capital, are the most concerted diplomatic push on the North Korean issue since President Bush took office. They pose a difficult challenge to the administration as it seeks to persuade Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear ambitions without directly rewarding it for doing so, a move that Mr. Bush said would amount to blackmail.
South Korea, Japan, Russia and China will participate in the negotiations, meeting the Bush administration's longstanding precondition that talks must involve the major regional powers.
Diplomats and political analysts say the four countries are likely to support American demands that North Korea dismantle its arms program and submit to international inspections. But Pyongyang's negotiators are known for seeking to exploit differences between the United States and the other countries involved, and the talks are expected to be difficult and prolonged.
On the eve of the discussions, which were arranged after extensive shuttle diplomacy by Beijing's diplomats, Chinese officials called on all sides to come prepared to make concessions. That means ending North Korea's nuclear program but also offering the country a firm security guarantee, they said.
"China holds that the Korean peninsula should be nuclear-free, and reasonable security concerns of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea should be addressed," Zeng Qinghong, China's vice president, said today, using the formal name for North Korea.
The fact that talks are taking place at all — after a stormy session in April and North Korea's repeated claims in recent weeks that it is moving expeditiously to reprocess plutonium for nuclear bombs — has prompted cautious optimism that the meetings could be constructive, though almost certainly inconclusive.
"There is real pressure on North Korea to make concessions, but also on the United States to be reasonable," said Susan Shirk, a State Department official during the Clinton administration who is now at the University of California at San Diego. "I'd be surprised if we see a real breakthrough, but also if the talks collapse."
Asian diplomats say the outlines of a potential deal are clear. North Korea would abandon its nuclear program and agree to intrusive inspections to verify that it sticks with that commitment. The United States would provide a firm security guarantee and, along with its allies, offer aid, investment and other economic incentives to the cash-strapped government.
Optimists, including Chinese, South Korean and Russian diplomats, say the North Korean leader, Kim Jong Il, has long viewed his nuclear program as a bargaining chip to be traded for the right mix of security assurances, diplomatic recognition and aid.
But hardliners in the Bush administration say they believe that Mr. Kim has no intention of giving up weapons of mass destruction. They argue that extended talks would just delay implementation of tougher measures to sanction the country or even topple the Communist regime.
North Korea acknowledged last year that it had violated a 1994 pact with the United States that mandated an end to its nuclear program. It also expelled arms inspectors. Some analysts say that Mr. Kim views atomic arms as the only way his nation, desperately short of food and fuel, can maintain leverage over its more economically advanced neighbors.
"Negotiations really depend on North Korea being ready to trade away its deterrent, and I don't see any sign that they're ready to do that," said Victor D. Cha, an Asian Studies specialist at Georgetown University. "As a result, I think you'll see positions remaining fairly entrenched on both sides."
All the parties involved say North Korea will at a minimum drive a hard bargain and any resolution is likely to take months to reach. Neither the United States nor North Korea has indicated much new flexibility going into the talks, with each side emphasizing that the other must take the first steps.
"Probably the most we can hope for is that everyone is civil, that they show that they are open to discussions," said Xu Wenji, a Korean expert at Jilin University in northeast China. "That would open the door to negotiating about substance."
The talks come at a sensitive time in Washington, with Bush administration officials sending starkly different signals about their willingness to reach a deal. On the eve of the talks, Jack Pritchard, the administration's special envoy for negotiations with North Korea, who has advocated a conciliatory approach, resigned after being criticized by a prominent senator for being out of touch with administration policy.
Nonetheless, the Bush administration's negotiating team, headed by James A. Kelly, assistant secretary of state, appears to have prepared a more comprehensive negotiating plan than in the past. Administration officials have described a multi-phase process in which North Korea reveals the full scope of its nuclear activity, then agrees to halt production and re-admit inspectors. The administration would promise in return to discuss aid and security after North Korea "completely and verifiably" eliminates the weapons.
Bush administration officials signaled that they may not oppose South Korea or other regional countries offering economic incentives to North Korea relatively early in the process, softening their stance that such inducements would only reward blackmail.
A significant difference with previous efforts to find a diplomatic solution is the new and unusually assertive role of China. Beijing had previously maintained that the North Korea nuclear issue was a matter for Pyongyang and Washington to work out on their own.
This time, Beijing put heavy pressure on North Korea, including briefly cutting off oil supplies, to bring it to the negotiating table.
China's active role has put pressure on both sides to negotiate in good faith, political analysts say, because it has broad political and economic sway over North Korea and could easily tip the balance between isolating it or helping it resist the United States. Beijing provides as much as 80 percent of the country's food and oil imports at concessionary prices.
"China has put so much effort into these negotiations that if it becomes clear one side or the other lacks sincerity, China's support for that side is going to decline," said Chu Shulong, a prominent foreign policy expert at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
China's cooperation is viewed as essential to the United States in the event the talks do not go well. The United States has made clear that it may intercept North Korean sea shipments to prevent arms proliferation and to push for sanctions in the United Nations, both of which could prove difficult without at least tacit Chinese support. |
