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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: tekboy who wrote (112996)8/27/2003 1:44:35 AM
From: Maurice Winn  Respond to of 281500
 
<tb@guerrillasandkings.com > Smile...

From the sidelines, that about sums it up.

Plus ca change,
Mqurice

PS: < Iraq: Meeting the Challenge, Sharing the Burden, ...> How about sharing the spoils?



To: tekboy who wrote (112996)8/27/2003 1:49:50 AM
From: Bilow  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
Hi tekboy; Re: "... I'm starting to get a bit worried [about Iraq]."

"Starting"??? A "bit"???

That "pretty good update" is so full of false hopes that it's stunning:

Re: "Security: Deploy sufficient forces to subdue Iraqi resistance ..."

Problem is that would require a tripling of soldiers there (per the figures for Britain in Northern Ireland etc.) and no soldiers even approaching these numbers are available to go, not from the US or anywhere else.

Re: "... and continue the hunt for former leaders of the regime, especially Saddam Hussein."

A sign that the writers are still deluded into believing that Saddam's life matters in terms of the guerilla war. We've been capturing one card after another, but the guerilla war not only continues, it grows. This proves that capturing all of them ain't gonna stop the war.

Re: "Law and Order: Must be established in Baghdad and throughout Iraq. The U.S. should intensify its efforts to recruit and retrain Iraqi police officers, and immediately seek international assistance for this process."

Again, we need about 500,000 troops in Iraq and huge numbers of police as well. They can't come from the US because we can't speak Arabic and consequently don't have the slightest idea whose ox was gored. They won't come from the Arab world unless we let them run the place which would imply an admission on Bush's part that the war was a disaster. They can't come from Iraq because it will take many months to even hire ones (that have been security checked), and then train them, etc., and then we'd have the same problem every similar situation has generated in the past, the guerillas would infect the Iraqi police force.

Re: "Re-establish Services: In Baghdad and throughout Iraq as soon as possible. Especially electricity and telecommunications."

These are all great ideas, but there is no way that we can do any of this in the face of a guerilla war. Pipelines and electric lines are linear things that stretch for hundreds of miles. They cannot possibly be defended in guerilla war and never have been, ever. In Vietnam, even with 500,000 troops we were unable to even defend the major highways. In Iraq, our troops again cannot defend even the major highways but instead are ambushed anywhere they go. Under these circumstances, to talk about restoring power is ridiculous.

Militarily, they should be talking about supplying generators for small neighborhoods that do not require power lines, and moving oil around in convoys of (easily ambushed but less easily sabotaged) oil tanker trucks. Ah, but such would require an admission that the Bush administration cannot keep the lights on, and in addition it would be massively expensive.

Note that since the report was written, the Iraqi water supply has been sabotaged.

Re: "Get the Message Out: Through the establishment of world class radio and TV broadcasting ..."

This is true, but not solvable. The problem is that human nature being what it is, the American government can't even convince its own population that smoking is a bad idea. How the hell is it going to convince the Iraqi population not to hate us? While our soldiers run around shooting civilians daily? It won't work any better than the Soviet attempt to convince their citizens to love their state.

Re: "... support for independent media ..."

The problem is that truly independent media in Iraq is complaining constantly about the Americans. This is not a solvable problem.

Re: "... and possibly the opening of local public information centers where Iraqis can more readily access CPA officials."

This is a joke. We should instead be giving power over to whatever Iraqi groups are willing to take it, and let them deal with the minor problems of their citizens.

As it is, we have a situation where a country is 65% unemployed, angry, and is accustomed to everyone owning a machine gun or even grenades, in their home. We cannot possibly control the place, Saddam Hussein, in all his viciousness, was barely able to keep the civilians in check.

Re: "Generate Employment: For the estimated 60% of the working age population that is unemployed."

This is a good idea. But it also has problems. Right now there are a certain number of Iraqis who are spending their time trying to make sure that they get enough to eat. They hate us. Giving them money for food is not going to stop them from hating us any more than giving money to poor people in the US stops them from envying their richer neighbors. So now we'll have a situation where instead of having starving guerillas shooting at us, we'll instead have well fed and healthy guerillas shooting at us.

Re: "Share the Burden: By seeking a broader role for the United Nations, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, ... to allow other countries to contribute troops and funds for stabilizing and rebuilding Iraq."

This is a great sentiment, but it ignores the political realities. Since the authors wrote this, we've had the UN targeted, the first non Anglo/American KIA, a steadily lengthening death count for the US, and still no significant troop donations from other countries.

The basic problem is that to get to the troop level that Britain used to quiet Northern Ireland (over a 10 year period) we need to get another 300,000 troops. We could recruit Martians and Dolphins and still never get near that total. That's cause the other countries on the planet don't want to send their troops over to get slowly picked off in the desert.

Re: "... and our Arab allies ..."

This is a joke. We have no Arab allies. The Kuwaitis used us to get rid of Saddam, whom they had a grudge against. But are they volunteering to police the mess they helped create? Not only hell no, but they wouldn't even send any troops to begin with.

The other Arab states all have minor or major problems with Al Qaeda. These problems began in earnest when Russia pulled out of Afghanistan and all those returning veterans started wanting changes in their home countries. Having a chaotic Iraq as a place for Islamic nut cases to be attracted to is very convenient for the moderate Arab countries, who are the only ones that would consider sending troops or police to help us. No country that has a fly problem is going to send troops that would stop Iraq from being fly paper.

-- Carl

P.S. This should give you cause for worry:

An independent public opinion survey of 1,090 Baghdad residents by the Iraq Center for Research and Strategic Studies (ICRSS) conducted on June 19, 2003, reinforced many of our own observations.

It's a notorious fact of human nature that the citizens of the big cities are, on average, far more liberal than rural or small town folk. So when you look at the opinion polls cited in the report, you should understand that in Iraq as a whole, the numbers are far worse. And it is in the countryside where the pipelines and powerlines have to be defended.

By the way, this difference between the country and city dates at least as far back as the American revolution, and appears to be a universal trait of the human species.



To: tekboy who wrote (112996)8/27/2003 3:21:51 AM
From: KLP  Respond to of 281500
 
NYT~~Traces of Enriched Uranium Are Reportedly Found in Iran

August 27, 2003
By FELICITY BARRINGER

nytimes.com

NITED NATIONS, Aug. 26 — International inspectors have found traces of highly enriched uranium at an Iranian facility, according to a new confidential report distributed today. The traces could be an indication that Tehran has already produced weapons-grade nuclear materials.

Iran denied producing nuclear materials, said the report, by the International Atomic Energy Association, the conclusions of which were obtained by The New York Times. The report added, "Additional work is also required to enable the agency to arrive at conclusions about Iran's statements that there have been no uranium enrichment activities in Iran involving nuclear material."

The Iranians, the report said, explained that the trace particles found by inspectors at the Natanz uranium enrichment plant had been on the equipment when it was purchased from another country.

The report added that "Iran has agreed to provide the agency with all information about the centrifuge components and other contaminated equipment it obtained from abroad, including their origin and the locations where they have been stored and used in Iran."

John Bolton, the under secretary of state for arms control and international security, was in Moscow and Paris this week to discuss Iran, as well as the continuing standoff over North Korea's nuclear program. Philip T. Reeker, a spokesman for the State Department, said, "We have real concerns about this, and it's part of our broad dialogue with Russia on many things."

The next meeting of the agency's board of governors is scheduled to begin Sept. 8. At their most recent meetings the members of the board decided to press Iran both to sign an additional protocol and to provide the inspectors with additional information and access and allow them to test Tehran's claim that its program is a purely civilian effort to increase the country's energy capacity. Iraq has one nuclear reactor under construction at Bushehr being built and supplied by a Russian company.

The new report credits Iran with giving inspectors access to previously closed sites and providing new information about the origins of some of its nuclear efforts in the early 1990's.

"Iran has demonstrated an increased degree of cooperation" with inspectors, the report said. It added that Tehran has also indicated a willingness to begin negotiations on the terms under which it will sign a protocol to the nuclear nonproliferation treaty, as the agency has asked.

David Albright, the president of the Institute for Science and International Security, based in Washington, said today: "Several questions have been answered. Additional questions may be answered. But we still haven't answered the basic question: Has Iran enriched uranium?"

Mr. Albright also indicated that the information that is being developed in various capitals about the origins of the Iranian program points to Pakistan as the likely source of the centrifuge designs and components necessary for uranium enrichment. Pakistan's government has denied such a role.

Iranian officials have maintained for years that they are simply developing a civilian nuclear power program. The Agence France-Presse news service reported that, at a news conference in Tehran today, the government spokesman, Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, said, "We are still negotiating and we have a positive approach" to the protocol, which permits unannounced inspections.

In Vienna, Ali-Akbar Salehi, Tehran's ambassador to the I.A.E.A., told The Associated Press that the equipment was "contaminated" with enriched uranium before it was purchased by Iran. Mr. Salehi told the news agency that the equipment in question was "brought many years ago from intermediaries," making it impossible to identify exactly where the contamination may have occurred.

In an interview with the German magazine Stern, to be published later this week, the director general of the agency, Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei, commenting on the traces of highly enriched uranium, said today, "This worries us greatly."

Melissa Fleming, a spokeswoman for the agency in Vienna, said in an e-mail message today, "Our inspectors and experts have been in Iran no fewer than five times in the period since June and we have made considerable progress since then in clarifying the history, extent and purpose of Iran's nuclear program." But she said the remaining open questions required "urgent resolution."

A tough report from the agency in June concluded that "Iran has failed to meet its obligations" to report the existence of the natural uranium it obtained in 1991 and to report the existence of a heavy-water research reactor that could provide Tehran with a different technological capacity to produce weapons-grade nuclear material.

This report, according to Mr. Albright, appears less categorical, and so offers less ammunition to Washington or other capitals that might want to urge a tough stance by the board of governors. The board has options ranging from seeking more information to referring the Iranian question to the United Nations Security Council.

"They're still saying we're waiting for more cooperation, waiting for environmental samples," said Corey Hinderstein, a colleague of Mr. Albright's at the Institute for Science and International Security.

In a report in the current issue of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Ms. Hinderstein and Mr. Albright wrote, "Worries about Iranian nuclear activities were heightened in early July after Iran conducted a successful test of the Shahab-3 missile, which can carry a 2,200-pound payload as far as 1,500 kilometers. The timing of Iran's announcement about the Shahab-3 and the size of its payload suggest that the missile is intended to carry a nuclear warhead."

In an e-mail exchange, Ms. Fleming, the I.A.E.A. spokeswoman, said today, "The I.A.E.A. is hopeful that by the time of its next board of governors meeting in November, we will have moved decisively towards resolving the outstanding issues."

Mr. Albright and Ms. Hinderstein warn that every few months' delay in acting to shut down what may be an advanced effort to give Tehran a nuclear-weapons capacity gives the Iranians more time to expand their complex of centrifuges, which in turn could bring them closer to that end.



To: tekboy who wrote (112996)8/28/2003 12:27:34 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 281500
 
General blames US for Iraq 'chaos'

_____________________________________

BBC News
Last Updated: Thursday, 28 August, 2003, 01:53 GMT 02:53 UK
news.bbc.co.uk

The former commander of Nato forces in Europe, General Wesley Clark, says American policy has "created chaos" in Iraq.

General Clark said the fundamental problem was the US tendency to fight states to get at "terrorists", rather than take on the "terrorists" themselves.

"We may have given Osama Bin Laden the recharge he needed to rebuild his arsenal and his ranks," he told the BBC's World Today programme.

General Clark is being encouraged to become a democratic candidate for next year's presidential election, but has not yet announced if he will stand.

His criticisms coincided with a warning from the US administrator in Iraq, Paul Bremer, that the country would need tens of billions of dollars to rebuild its shattered infrastructure.

The bill to overhaul essential services would reach almost $30bn, on top of the estimated $1bn per week the US already spends on its forces in Iraq, he said.

President George W Bush has pledged "no retreat" in Iraq, saying US-led forces are making good progress in restoring order and insisting Iraq is part of the wider war on terror.

But General Clark expressed reservations about waging war on a country that he did not believe was "particularly linked to terrorism" or an "imminent danger".

He said the war should have resulted in restored Iraqi relations with the UN and Nato, finding weapons of mass destruction and ensuring Iraq would "not become a hotbed of international terrorism".

"We are drawing in terrorists. We have created chaos in Iraq," he said.

'Rethink strategy'

America should have concentrated its efforts on the "fundamental problem" of fighting "terrorism", he argued.

"What I have seen again and again is a tendency to want to attack states to get at terrorists rather than dealing with the harder problem of getting the terrorists themselves."

He said America should rethink its strategy on Iraq, and work to ensure Iraqis could take back control of their borders, security and reconstruction.

General Clark said he would announce in the coming days if he would stand as a democratic candidate in next year's presidential elections.

The situation in Iraq is fast becoming an issue for next year's presidential election, the BBC's Justin Webb reports from Washington.

Mr Bush's speeches have been branded "empty rhetoric" by opposition candidates, and his popularity ratings have fallen.

The number of American deaths since the end of major combat operations on 1 May has now surpassed the number killed during the war - 139 compared to 138.



To: tekboy who wrote (112996)8/28/2003 8:19:45 PM
From: Hawkmoon  Respond to of 281500
 
very hard to gauge from the outside what's going on.

I have to concur.. Even with some of the people I talk with from time to time, as I travel in my circles here in DC, they just can't seem to offer a good description of what's transpiring in Iraq outside of snippets here and there, and what the news is providing..

I was having a conversation last night with an individual who is in a position to have some insight on day to day stuff over there, and we seem to share some similar views about the post-war SNAFUs..

He also believed that we just didn't expect the situation to develop as it has (which should surprise me, but very little does anymore.. sigh), but we both believe that we'll adapt soon enough and start to understand the nature of the people and society we're dealing with.

The intelligence preparation of the battlefield and post-war scenarios definitely left something to be desired. And it seems we've tended to ignore the legitimacy necessary from the clan and tribal chiefs, as well as holding the chiefs responsible for any violations by members of their family.

Or maybe it's just that we predominantly see the situation within the Sunni Triangle, where most of Saddam's immediate support base lived (and would be expected to resent the US presence).

but only the hapless Gen. Garner has gotten the boot, while those higher up seem unscathed,

Funny you mention that... Garner was a topic we were discussing as well.. My associate's belief was that Garner must have said something that irked one side or the other.. Or he was making promises someone "upstairs" was not yet prepared to support.. But his sudden exit remains a mystery to most outside of the immediate decision makers.

I continue to think the situation is salvageable,

As do I.. It's just a matter of degrees, treasure, and time. But having the heart of a conspiratorialist (in the absence of actual facts), I can only believe there's some serious political "gaming" going on, or we've got some incompentent SOB's in charge of the civil affairs (or a combination of either/or).

The army, due to a shortage of qualified personnel, is looking at making CA slots mandatory deployments for the next 3 years. That's not going to be good for recruitment in that speciality..

And the people they have tend to be converted combat arms types who treat their new CA mission as delicately as they might treat a CALFEX or advanced Tank Table.. (Armored soldiers will understand this analogy).

And thanks for the link.. I'll try and read all of it by Tuesday.. I skimmed some of it.. but I've been kinda busy lately with limited time to read the chat threads.

Hawk