U.S. Set to Take a Hard Line in Talks on Korean Arms
By JOSEPH KAHN - [The New York Times]
August 27, 2003
BEIJING, Aug. 26 - North Korea will come under intense diplomatic pressure to scrap its nuclear weapons program on Wednesday as the United States, North Korea and its four neighbors begin unusual six-party negotiations on how to resolve the Korean arms crisis.
The talks, scheduled to take place over three days here in the Chinese capital, are the most concerted diplomatic push on North Korea since President Bush took office. They pose a difficult challenge to the administration as it seeks to persuade the North to abandon its nuclear ambitions without directly rewarding it for doing so, which Mr. Bush said would be like succumbing to blackmail.
South Korea, Japan, Russia and China will take part in the negotiations, meeting the Bush administration's precondition that talks must involve the major regional powers.
Diplomats and experts say those four countries are likely to support American demands that North Korea dismantle its arms program and submit to inspections. But North Korean negotiators are known for seeking to exploit differences between the United States and the other countries involved, and the talks are expected to be difficult and prolonged.
The talks come at a sensitive time in Washington, with Bush administration officials sending starkly different signals about their willingness to reach a deal. On the eve of the talks, Jack Pritchard, the administration's special envoy for negotiations with North Korea who had advocated a conciliatory approach, resigned after being criticized by a prominent senator for being out of touch with administration policy.
A senior administration official said today that people who favor a hard-line negotiating stance had prevailed in the debate leading up to the talks. The administration, this official said, has firmly ruled out offering North Korea any concessions until it unilaterally abandons its nuclear program in a "complete, verifiable and irreversible" way.
The task of conducting negotiations without offering incentives will fall to James A. Kelly, an assistant secretary of state. He is expected to outline a multiphase process in which any American concessions would come only at the end, after North Korea admits the full scope of its nuclear activity, halts such activity and readmits inspectors.
But other administration officials have indicated that they would not necessarily oppose South Korea or other regional countries offering economic incentives to North Korea.
On the eve of the discussions, which were arranged after extensive shuttle diplomacy by Beijing's diplomats, Chinese officials called on all sides to come prepared to make concessions. That means ending North Korea's nuclear program but also offering the country a firm security guarantee, they said.
"China holds that the Korean peninsula should be nuclear free and reasonable security concerns of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea should be addressed," Zeng Qinghong, China's vice president, said today, using the formal name for North Korea.
The fact that talks are taking place at all, after a stormy session in April and North Korea's repeated claims that it is moving to reprocess plutonium for nuclear bombs, has prompted cautious optimism that they could be constructive, though almost certainly inconclusive.
"There is real pressure on North Korea to make concessions, but also on the United States to be reasonable," says Susan Shirk, a former Clinton administration State Department official who is now at the University of California at San Diego. "I'd be surprised if we see a real breakthrough, but also if the talks collapse."
Asian diplomats say the outlines of a potential deal are clear. North Korea would abandon its nuclear program and agree to intrusive inspections. The United States would provide a firm security guarantee and, along with its allies, offer aid, investment and other economic incentives to the cash-strapped country.
Optimists, including Chinese, South Korean and Russian diplomats, say the North Korean leader, Kim Jong Il, has long viewed his nuclear program as a bargaining chip to be traded for the right mix of security assurances, diplomatic recognition and aid.
But hard-liners in the Bush administration say they believe that Mr. Kim has no intention of giving up weapons of mass destruction. They argue that extended talks would just delay tougher measures to penalize the country or even topple the Communist government.
"Negotiations really depend on North Korea being ready to trade away its deterrent, and I don't see any sign that they're ready to do that," said Victor D. Cha, an Asian studies specialist at Georgetown University. "As a result, I think you'll see positions remaining fairly entrenched on both sides."
All the parties involved say North Korea will at a minimum drive a hard bargain and any resolution is likely to take months to reach. Neither the United States nor North Korea has indicated much new flexibility going into the talks, with each side emphasizing that the other must take the first steps.
A significant difference with previous effort to find a diplomatic solution is the new and unusually assertive role of China.
Beijing had previously maintained that the nuclear issue was a matter for North Korea and the United States to work out on their own. This time, Beijing put heavy pressure on North Korea, including briefly cutting off oil supplies, to bring it to the negotiating table.
China's active role has pressed both sides to negotiate in good faith, experts say, because it has broad political and economic sway over the North. Beijing provides as much as 80 percent of the country's food and oil at concessionary prices.
"China has put so much effort into these negotiations that if it becomes clear one side or the other lacks sincerity, China's support for that side is going to decline," said Chu Shulong, a foreign policy expert at Qinghua University in Beijing.
China's cooperation is viewed as essential to the United States in the event the talks do not go well. The United States has made clear it may intercept North Korean sea shipments to prevent arms proliferation and to push for penalties in the United Nations, both of which could prove difficult without at least tacit Chinese support.
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