Clark v. Dean / Dean v. Clark
from a weblog...
liquidmichael.blogspot.com
The man of the hour has to be Howard Dean, the former governor of Vermont. He has outpaced all of his democratic opponents in campaign contributions. New polls show that he has a double digit lead over top rival Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) in New Hampshire, a key primary state. He has attracted thousands to rallies all over the country on the "Sleepless Summer" tour, which ended last night New York City's Bryant Park.
What is perhaps more interesting is that Dean has used the internet to change the way presidential campaigns are being conducted, much in the way that Sen. Jack Kennedy used television in 1960 to his advantage. Most of the million plus dollars Dean has received has come from first-time campaign contributors via the internet. We are perhaps witnessing a phenomenon never before seen in American politics. Dean's core supporters are not people that he has solicited. They are folks that have sought him out. Moms, dads, teens, and the like click on his website to find out about the candidate. There is a strong underlying message here: Americans want Bush gone and they will search for ways to send him back to Crawford Texas. This is not your grandpa’s politics. Although (if he has DSL) it very well could be.
When voters click on to Dean's website, www.deanforamerica.com, they are not disappointed. The site does not just excite people by Dean's message, it excites them in the same way the entertainment industry does, with flashy ads and graphics. There are AIM buddy icons that can be downloaded. There are banners ads for people to put on their own website. There is an official Dean for America blog. There are pictures from the campaign trail. Dean has even set up Dean TV which allows viewers to watch several of his speeches, television ads, and cable talk show interviews. Even this tech savy teen was mesmerized by Dean TV. Perhaps the most innovative use of the internet has been Dean's surge on Meet Up, a website that allows people with common interests to get together in person and discuss that interest. People talk about everything from Harry Potter to the NBA. Over 92,000 everyday, ordinary Americans are organizing themselves to rally for Dean.
Somehow the Dean Team is able to take politics beyond the realm of boredom into a new wave of excitement and fascination. In a strange way, one does not even have to agree with the message to get excited. The messenger and the way in which the message is delivered are enough.
Dean's initial train took off on the steam of leftists angry over the recent war in Iraq. A strong opponent of the war, Dean appealed to what he describes as "The Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party." Furious with the current administration and with the Democratic Leadership Council and the New Democrat Network which together have a strangle hold on the Democratic Party, those left of the middle flocked to Dean. Dean was portrayed as the Washington outsider and party rebel who would give a voice to the voiceless. (This is nothing new. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) received similar reaction to his 2000 bid for the presidency.)
However, as we saw with McCain, there was likewise always gravitation towards the traditional leaders of the party. The rank and file members of the GOP flocked to Gov. George W. Bush to squash rebel McCain's chances. Interestingly, this has not happened in the 2004 DNC race. Dean is the hands down front runner, with the other nine candidates trailing by a good margin. Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) has seen almost no gain in support over the summer and the same is true for Sen. Bob Graham (D-FL). Many Democrats view former Vice-Presidential Candidate and once shining hero of the DLC Sen. Joseph Lieberman (D-CT) as little more than a Republican masquerading as a Democrat, or, as some call him, "Bush-lite." Former House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt (D-MI) is counting on support from labor unions, and still in the race. The only other viable centrist Democrat left is Kerry, who many view as being too effete and too much of a Washington insider.
With a lack of good moderate candidates to offset Howard Dean, Dean is working to fill that vacuum himself instead of waiting for someone else to begin the inevitable pull towards the middle. He is beginning to portray himself as fiscally conservative and is going to great lengths to make is record as a fairly centrist governor known. He is touting Vermont's balanced budget, reminding voters that he voted in favor of the 1991 Gulf War, while now downplaying his opposition to the more recent war in the Middle East. It seems that the governor's strategy is play to both sectors of the Democratic Party.
Dean has good reason to fear that a strong moderate could enter the race and detract attention away from him. Some believe that Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) could join the race, despite promises to the contrary. Still more believe former Vice-President and 2000 Presidential Candidate, Al Gore, could enter the race at the behest of DNC leadership.
The one name that is causing the most stir is former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO forces, Gen. Wesley Clark of Arkansas.
A graduate of West Point, Rhodes Scholar, and four star general, Clark has the national security and defense credentials that, perhaps, give him more credibility to challenge Pres. Bush's War in Iraq than Gov. Dean. The General has been making several television appearances and has even given a speech at the New Democrat Network Convention, detailing the Bush Administrations failures. It is widely believed that Clark will enter the race around or on Labor Day.
A recent Zogby poll commissioned by the folks at www.draftwesleyclark.com, a movement to get retired Gen. Wesley Clark to join the quest for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, showed that 4.9% of those polled would vote for Wesley Clark if the primaries were held today, putting him if fifth place in a pack of 10 behind Dean, Gephardt, Lieberman, and Kerry.
The same poll showed the Gov. Dean is the only candidate gaining momentum while the other candidates remain stagnant or are losing support. 23% of Dean supporters feel "very strongly" committed to Dean's candidacy, while 47% of Clark supporters feel "very strongly" committed to a man who has not even announced that he is running. Roughly 20% of Dean supporters say they are "not at all strongly" committed to Dean, while only 8% of Clark supporters would say the same about him.
This shows that there is a certain amount of fluidity in this race. It can be inferred that Dean supporters are such because there simply is not a better alternative currently in the race. This becomes even clearer when the results of a "blind bio" poll are analyzed. The participants are read bios of the candidates and then pick for which they would vote based on the bio. 16.3% said they would vote for Dean, which is roughly the amount of support Dean is getting among Democratic nationwide. 22.9% said they would vote for Wesley Clark. When Dean's bio was matched against Clark's bio, Clark beat Dean on a 50/35 margin. Clark also beat Kerry, Lieberman, and Gephardt (those ahead of him in the polls) in bio match-ups.
This shows, perhaps, that if Clark does announce a run, once people begin to learn more about him, voters will abandon their current candidates and will flock to Clark, much like republicans flocked to Bush in 2000.
Now, some pundits believe it is too late for Clark to get in the race. I disagree. The last Democratic Rhodes Scholar from Arkansas to win the presidency by challenging a popular Republican wartime President named Bush did not get into the election until October of '91 for the 1992 election. The Zogby poll showed that 84.1% of likely voters believe that it is not too late to get into the race. It is almost as if people are screaming for it. The current candidates, save for Dean, do little to excite the electorate. And even with the excitement Dean does bring, some people believe he will not win against Bush, that his anti-war stance will fall on deaf ears due to his lack of military experience.
I think several situations could unfold. There have been rumors that Dean and Clark have been in talks about a possible VP run for Clark, with him staying out of the race. I believe such a plan would be detrimental and would backfire. As I see it, the most decorated general since Dwight D. Eisenhower is the only person that can beat Bush. If there is to be any deal made it should be for a Clark/Dean ticket, and not the other way around. It won't help much to have Clark as VP during the election. As VP, Clark would obviously not be the commander-in-chief, which is where his main appeal lies.
I also would not rule out a Clark/Edwards ticket or a Clark/Kerry ticket. Clark could use Edwards to help win key southern states like Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, and North Carolina. Edwards is also young enough to pull off a strong presidential run in eight years. If Clark gets into the race and a strong aversion to the left wing of the DNC develops, Dean may fall out of the picture, which could potentially open the door for Kerry, or perhaps even Gephardt.
However, the best shot for the Democratic Party is a Clark/Dean ticket. It covers both sections of the party and would cause there to be a cohesive in the DNC that would rival the unity in the GOP. Furthermore, it's a winnable ticket.
The Zogby poll showed the Dean is currently 10 points behind Pres. Bush in the polls, with 9% of the respondents undecided. If you take the margin of error into consideration, Dean is certainly in striking distance in his own right. When Clark, who isn't even running yet, was put up against Bush by name only, he was a mere 11 points behind the president. The best interesting, and promising, poll results showed that when Clark's bio was put up against Bush's bio, Clark won 49% to 40%!
Eh, but what do I know.....
- posted by Mike @ 8/28/2003 04:10:35 AM |
