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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: SwampDogg who wrote (32114)8/27/2003 10:44:50 PM
From: Little Joe  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 36161
 
CHART UPDATE

If there is one chart you need to look at to understand why I am so bullish it is the chart of the HUI and particularly the long term chart. Thanks to the several threadsters who sent me the link to a good long term chart of the HUI.

bigcharts.marketwatch.com

As you can see from the chart, which goes back to 1996, a huge upslanting (most bullish type) head and shoulders bottom has completed.

The left shoulder was completed between 1998 and 1999, the botttom of the head is the low in late 2000 and the right shoulder was completed in mid to early 2002. I can’t draw in the neckline but if you can imagine a line drawn from the completion of the shoulder which is the high in 1999 through the to the neck of the right shoulder which is the high in mid to early 2002, that is called the neckline. Then measure up from the bottom of the head in late 2002 to neckline and that is the first step in measuring the extent of the move. Based on my charts at home my best estimate of the number is 86, I may have posted a different number earlier, but I think this is more accurate. The breakout occurred at 180 to which 86 is added for an HUI target of 266. This is my assessment of where HUI is headed. The time frame is an issue but ask yourself where the gold stocks we are following will be if the HUI goes to 266. Of course I can’t guarantee that this will happen, but so far nothing in my technical work suggests otherwise to me and I intend to go with this analysis until something in the technicals suggests otherwise.

As most of you know I use TC-2000 for my analysis and then search the net for links to charts that best illustrate what I am seeing in TC-2000. However, TC-2000 has a few propriety indicators of accumulation and distribution and I can’t post these. However there are several widely followed stocks on this thread that I believe can be safely purchased here:

BGO, CAU,CDE, GLG,HL, KRY, MNG, NEM, RGLD, SIL, SSRI, WHT and WTZ.

Note these are all stocks that trade on US exchanges. I do not have the ability to analyze Canadian or pink sheet stocks as Worden does not provide the necessary data. If a stock is not listed it does not mean anything. While there are a few I would stay away from I think the above are the best buy candidates in the TC 2000 gold and silver stocks that I follow. I own NEM calls and WTZ purchased when it only traded in Canada. Generally when I trade stocks listed on the American exchange I buy options because I like the leverage. I will be looking to buy options on some of the above tomorrow, with the little cash I now have and I probably will get rid of two laggards to raise additional funds to buy.

My best stock in the last two months has been JNI.to Jaguar Nickel. I posted a fairly extensive analysis on the precious and base mining thread, yesterday or the day before. I still like this stock very much but it is sure overdue for a correction.

Feedback, positive or negative and comments are appreciated.

Live long and prosper

Little joe



To: SwampDogg who wrote (32114)8/28/2003 5:01:07 AM
From: Roebear  Respond to of 36161
 
fuddle,
It would be better for stamina with the longer term targets of the HUI if we would have (or would have had) a minor correction before we go much higher.

It may be that we have seen this over the past week, and I miscalculated the target point:

bigcharts.marketwatch.com

As I posted, we will all know within about a week if I did calculate that 170 target correctly or not.

JMHO,
Roebear