Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (18562)	8/29/2003 5:54:59 AM
From: TheBusDriver	Respond to of 39344

<<And I haven't seen the major catalysts (series of high premium buyouts) that could get more speculative juices going or put extra dollars (and recycle) in the hands of the sector's investors and speculators>> Russ I lived through something similar in the O&G industry some years ago. Basically after living through $10/BBL oil for some time, the majors were not too interesting in merging/taking over companies. They just wanted to start raking in profits again. And that is just what they did for about 18 months 2 years. Then, after profits "matured", they started looking around and mergers and acquisitions came at the rate of 1 or 2 a month for another year. Then things settled down with $18-$22/BBL oil. If we continue to see $30+/BBL oil much longer the cycle will start again but I think it will be the intermediate sized companies eating the little guys. We will be moving down the food chain. I think you will see the same thing in PMs. The big to intermediate producers will start to discover it is cheaper to buy their reserves that to go out and find them themselves. When? Donno. But, IMO, profits need to mature a bit more. Then take over mania will start....JMVHO. Wayne

To: russwinter who wrote (18562)	8/29/2003 8:41:03 AM
From: austrieconomist	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 39344

MZM growth rate at 17.5% for two months is still indicative of Fed monetization activity. research.stlouisfed.org At his stage I am leaning far more in the direction of gold supply/demand fundamentals than technicals for investment guidance. I think the facilitation of the means to gold ownership should not be underestimated: proliferation of gold ETFs on all world exchanges, liberalization of gold ownership and trading in China, shift of economic power to SE Asia where investors have existing proclivity for gold. And this changing fundamental is not a pie and the sky future projection but is in motion. The loss of the investment alternative of the U.S. equity market is also a certainty: timing here is much more difficult. Certainly within a year. I do think that the catalyst here has sprung -- the withdrawal of dollars available to consumers by cash out mortgage financings, now down almost 70% from May peak. How long does it take for that to seep into the economy? My guess about six months, since that is the earliest impact on any economic statistic of a change in MZM. Russ, I think your BCA DBA chart is from a subscription. It would be a great service if that chart could be posted on this thread every month or so. My estimation is that it is a great "coincident indicator".