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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (7002)	8/28/2003 9:07:56 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Japan figures point to recovery Friday, August 29, 2003 Posted: 0031 GMT ( 8:31 AM HKT) TOKYO, Japan (Reuters) -- Japanese industrial output rose more than expected in July and the number of workers increased, but retail sales slid and the price of goods fell, suggesting a patchy recovery in the world' second biggest economy. Production in Japan's factories, mills and refineries rose 0.5 percent in July compared with June on a seasonally adjusted basis, the government said on Friday. That beat a median forecast of a 0.2 percent rise in a Reuters survey, and prompted the government to upgrade its view on industrial output for the first time in a year. "Industrial production is on a flattening trend," the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said in a statement. Previously it had said output was "on a weak trend." The government also forecast that manufacturers' output -- akey component and close proxy of industrial production -- would rise 2.0 percent in August and 1.5 percent in September. "The economy is definitely recovering," said Peter Morgan, chief economist at HSBC Securities in Tokyo. "We do have weak consumer spending numbers from the household survey. Cold weather has depressed numbers there," he said. "But the key point is that the U.S. economy is looking better and exports have turned up," Morgan said. Recent data showing that the economy expanded for the sixth straight quarter, at an annualised rate of 2.3 percent, as well as a rise in share prices, have raised expectations Japan will continue on a recovery path despite sluggish consumer spending. The Nikkei share average opened one percent higher on Friday, helped by the surprisingly strong production data. "The rise in July output reflects a recovery in exports and an uptrend in capital spending," said Mamoru Yamazaki, chief economist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo. "Even though the big rises forecast for August and September could be revised downward, output would be up by 2.5 percent or so in the July-September quarter, and this suggests that April-June had been a trough that is now behind us." Good news on jobs Retail sales fell for the 28th straight month in July, dropping 3.0 percent from a year earlier, other data showed. The fall was likely exacerbated by poor sales from an unusually cool and wet summer, likely the worst in a decade. Average spending by households of wage earners, a key gauge of consumption, fell a real 6.0 percent from a year earlier. But there was some brightness on the jobs front. The number of employed, including self-employed, rose for the third straight month, by 70,000 to 63.81 million. The number of unemployed in July was down for the second straight month, falling by 100,000 from the same month last year to 3.42 million. The unemployment rate was 5.3 percent in July, unchanged from a month earlier. Separate data showed Japan's core nationwide consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.2 percent in July from a year earlier, the 46th straight month of decline. A Reuters poll of 23 economists had yielded a median forecast for a 0.4 percent fall, after a drop of the same magnitude in June. Month-on-month figures showed the core CPI index was flat from June on an unadjusted basis.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (7002)	8/29/2003 1:44:41 AM
From: Pink Minion	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

>> Novellus might miss Q3 sales goal Gee, maybe this is what Cramer was talking about. Sales flat Orders flat Earning down Stock up 100 percent

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (7002)	8/29/2003 10:09:56 AM
From: runes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

<<Novellus might miss Q3 sales goal>> Well that explains this little article - "Novellus isn't overpriced - T.Rowe Price Analyst" on the Dow Jones realtime news wire. (Sorry no link and I can't cut and paste it). It goes on to rationalize that NVLS makes $2 of free cash flow in an upturn which works out to a present PE of about 20. I.E. the stock is currently fairly valued IF we get to a full upturn without any detours. Sounds to me like one of those upbeat analyst BUY! (while I sell) signals. And dare I mention that AMAT is going to be trying to eat NVLS's market share along the way?