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Strategies & Market Trends : JAPAN-Nikkei-Time to go back up? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: borb who wrote (3458)	8/29/2003 2:27:08 PM
From: Crossy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3902

Borb, usually the volatility associated with September-Oktober is associated with disappointed financial expectations wrt. company annual statements. In addition to this come some special factors.. But the time usually conincides with "earnings warning" season for the entire year statements for many US companies.. Another effect is taxloss selling. If you look at the pattern, while it is true that Sept-Oktober OFTEN features higher volatility than the rest of the months' trading, the effect cannot be observed in every year. For about 2-3 quarters now, company financials do not disappint anymore in the US and if expectations are not met it's usually because of upside surprise (same in Japan recently - talk about the effects of 0.5% industrial production pickup MONTH ON MONTH announced yesterday in a MITI report - whew !). This is not an environment for a fall stock plunge. Certainly not. I predict smooth sailing ahead until March of 2004 (in the US) - in Japan probably until July 2004 rgrds CROSSY

To: borb who wrote (3458)	8/31/2003 9:00:37 PM
From: Crossy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3902

Japan - TECHS are flying today.. (Nikkei up 80 at open) - but secondary, formerly neglected techs are now gaining limelight exposure.. Interesting day - today the technology laggards in my Japan portfolio are flying.. I guess fund managers are starting to "hunt" for value.. JEOL - 6951.J - up 7% to 430 Yen - turnaround confirmation on recent quarterly interim report and guidance.. Maker of metrology instruments for semi equip, biotech, nanotechnology and chemical industries .. an INSTRUMENTATION play with more than decent value .. PSR 0.30 - last year a slight loss due to pension accounting change (all at once) this year, turnaround into profits is expected.. Exp EPS for FY2003 is 11 Yen, for FY2004 is 15 Yen, after a loss of 14 Yen for FY2002 (writeoff charges & pension accounting) SHINDENGEN Elecric - 6855.J - up 4% to 333 Yen - Power Semiconductor maker (rectifiers, thyristros, IGBTs, FREDs) .. PSR 0.35 - still cheap, probably the best value in power semis (pure play stocks only like Sanken 6707.J, Niec 6974.J, Shindengen etc..) - exp EPS 2003 will be 12 Yen after a 12 Yen loss per share last year.. quote.yahoo.co.jp rgrds CROSSY