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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sig who wrote (113422)	8/30/2003 12:38:27 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 281500

<With Al Qaeda promising terrorist strikes on the US, any success will doom a peace candidate.> At the end of the conventional-war phase of the Iraq war, Al Queda did several attacks. If they could have attacked in the U.S. again, I think they would have. All the attacks were in Muslim nations, so I think the battlefield is confined to there, for now. I have to give credit to the Administration, for achieving that. <1. If oil suppplies get short, or the ME effort fails, we may need nuclear power or new Alaska drilling> It can easily take 5 years, easily more, from initial plans thru tortuous permitting, to building and ramping up a nuclear plant. Same thing with developing ANWR. They haven't even done any but preliminary exploratory drilling, a vast infrastructure would have to be installed. And there just isn't that much in ANWR (much more in Canada's Mackenzie River area, and much more than that in the Alberta oil sands, but neither of those could be ramped quickly either). None of those are short-term solutions for anything. We could get wind farms up, on a massive scale, a lot quicker than that. <4. He cannot promise to raise taxes as that would kill the recovery and and cause a taxpayer revolt> If we keep running deficits in the half-trillion-$ range, interest rates will start creeping up, and that will kill the recovery too. If Americans like the way the war is going, they'll vote for Bush (who might even get the most votes, this time, ng) over any faux-Republican the Dems put up. If they don't like the way the war is going, they'll vote for the Democrat, but only if he offers a clear alternative. If both the Democrats and Republicans run as indistinguishable members of the War Party, and Americans get disenchanted with the war, then the Greens get the peace vote.....and Bush might still manage to win a plurality. So, my guess is, the only chance the Dems have, is to run a real Democrat, and a real peace candidate.