Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (65598)	9/1/2003 8:37:41 PM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

This week's indicators are a repeat of last week's, it would seem, ... my Barron's based indicators are bearish and my composite is bullish. Directional indicators are neutral. My guess is another wild and crazy week... BWDIK? The DJI system signal is still bearish but another positive (or even a weak negative) day will put it bullish. My expectations are as follows: - strong negative tomorrow will probably mean another try at a retest of the near 9500 area later on in the week; - strong positive... but not over 9500 is a setup for a strong sell-off; - very, very strong positive is a precursor to bubble lift-off time... The middle one is my favorite... but the market could go to sleep... I don't see how?

To: Real Man who wrote (65598)	9/2/2003 7:21:59 AM
From: Harvey Allen	Respond to of 94695

U.S. Treasuries Decline on Manufacturing Report Expectations Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries posted their biggest drop in almost three weeks in London trading as investors bet a report will show manufacturing in August was at its strongest in seven months, reducing the attraction of the safest securities. The Institute for Supply Management's factory index probably rose for a second month in August, after four months of contraction through July, a survey showed. Evidence that growth is picking up may allow the Federal Reserve to avoid cutting its benchmark interest rate from a 41-year low, prompting investors to buy stocks and other securities instead of government bonds. ``Markets are convinced economic conditions are better,'' said Job Piet, a bond analyst at Rabobank Groep in Utrecht, the No. 3 Dutch bank. ``Expectations for further central bank easing has been priced out.'' The two and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields may rise by 30 basis points in the next three months as growth picks up, Piet said. The benchmark 4 1/4 percent Treasury due August 2013 declined 31/32, or $9.68 per $1,000 face amount, to 97 12/32 as of 11:25 a.m. in London. The yield rose 12 basis points to 4.58 percent. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. U.S. markets were closed yesterday for the Labor Day holiday. The ISM factory index probably rose to 53.8 last month, from 51.8 in July, according to the median forecast of 56 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The report is scheduled to be released at 3 p.m. London time. The report ``will provide more signs the economy is picking up faster than originally expected,'' said Glenn Davies, chief economist at Credit Lyonnais Securities in London. ``The 10-year yield could spike up to 5 percent.'' Europe, Japan Tumble European and Japanese government bonds also tumbled. The yield on Japan's 0.3 percent coupon note due 2008 rose 17.5 basis points to 0.985 percent as of 5:41 p.m. in Tokyo, according to Japan Bond Trading Co. The yield on the 3 3/4 percent German bund due July 2013 increased 13 basis points to 4.34 percent as of 11:19 a.m. in London. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell for a third month in August, the longest losing stretch since June 2001, as signs of accelerating growth in the world's biggest economy encouraged investors to increase purchases of stocks. The Nasdaq Composite Index has advanced 13.4 percent in the past three months. The Standard & Poor's 500 climbed 4.6 percent in the period. ``Data over the past few weeks suggest that the U.S. economy has reached the bottom,'' said Wee Peng Lian, who helps oversee $1 billion of Asian bonds in Singapore at U.K.-based Aberdeen Asset Management Ltd. Faster Growth A Ried, Thunberg & Co. index measuring sentiment toward the 10-year year note among 52 international investors who oversee a combined $1.62 trillion fell to a six-week low of 45, from 46 a week earlier. A reading below 50 in the Westport, Connecticut- based research firm's index signals the note's price will fall by the end of the year. ``U.S. economic data will continue to reinforce expectations that growth in the third and fourth quarters will be between 4 percent and 5 percent,'' said Lee Wee Liat, an economist in Singapore at DBS Bank Ltd., the island's biggest bank by assets. The yield on 10-year notes may climb to 5 percent by year-end, he said. Lehman Brothers Inc., the fourth-biggest securities firm by capital, last week raised its U.S. growth forecast for the third quarter to 5 percent, from a previous estimate of 4 percent. The last time the economy grew at a 5 percent annualized rate was in the first quarter of 2002. Lehman is also a primary government securities dealer, one of 22 such firms that deal directly with the Federal Reserve. Last Updated: September 2, 2003 06:29 EDT quote.bloomberg.com 10-Year 4.250 08/15/2013 97-11/4.59 -1-00/0.128 07:03