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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NOW who wrote (37576)	8/30/2003 3:39:33 PM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Respond to of 74559

Hi tooearly, 1) It seems a given that white collar jobs will now be moved oversees from US at increasingly rapid rates. Is that assumption likely to be true? Recently released statistics, and an overabundance of anecdotal information, would indicate that the loss of US jobs (especially manufacturing, but also "white collar") to overseas locations is in fact occurring. Therefore your assumption appears to be true for the present time frame. 2) If that is true, at what point does some sort of equilibrium get reached or natural braking mechanism come into force for that trend? ie: companies profits initially are increasing as costs decrease but since jobs growth and salary growth is stagnant amongst those that consume said companies products.... or, wage parity is acheived in India and China making job flight less obvious, unless US educational system sucks even more (not unlikely). Global wage parity would ultimately undermine the financial reasons for the export of jobs to lesser expensive locations. However, other factors also come into play as well. Using manufacturing as an example, it may indeed be less expensive to manufacture a widget in China or India or South America, but if, by the time the widget reaches the shores of the USA, manufacturing costs plus shipping costs exceeds the costs of local manufacturing, then there is no financial incentive to import the widget. Import/export tariffs, local preferences for style, currency exchange rates, promotional sales incentives, demand for product or services, government subsidies, insurance costs are all among other factors that might add to costs of manufactured items before end consumption. The equilibrium that you seek is likely a moving target, here today and gone tomorrow. The ability of the end consumer to actually consume (by having wages and discretionary income) is only now coming to the forefront of global concerns, as governments are slow to realize that domestic consumption is not the sole responsibility of just the developed nations in the western world. However, change in direction comes slowly. 3) How to profit over the long haul on this job migration? Same as always, I'd guess. Invest in established companies in growth sectors. Avoid excessive speculation and stay within the limits of your knowledge and confidence when selecting potential investments. Jobs migration is largely a condition found in large, multi-national corporations. Smaller companies tend to exist for domestic consumption, sometimes in niche markets not attractive to the larger firms. Just an opinion though... KJC

To: NOW who wrote (37576)	8/30/2003 10:53:47 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hi tooearly, It is not toolate to be early in preparation for the storm, followed by the deluge, accompanied by the fire and brimstone :0) I will answer the questions in my own way, taking the answers to the extreme, just to exercise our collective minds. <<1) ... white collar jobs will now be moved oversees from US at increasingly rapid rates>> ... yes, some white collar jobs, some highly rewarded jobs, because the world is becoming one world, until it splits athunder in another cataclysmic big bang. Then the cycle begins again, with some other arrangement of haves and have-nots. <<2) ... at what point does some sort of equilibrium get reached or natural braking mechanism come into force for that trend?>> At a point when a Hunan peasant is living in a USD 220,000 mud hut with a detached garage containing a BMW, and a Bombay garbage collector is able to take vacations in Florida. Meaning until US J6P consumption becomes irrelevant to global economic growth, as other economies, with more astute and flexible management, generate internal and self-sustaining demand. <<US educational system>> may not fare well as the composition of US folks are changing, same with propensity to learn, and same with political will to finance, and with recent difficulties with foreign students who tend to (after taking all the trouble to apply, qualify, finance) take education more seriously, what with WAT-WOT and whatnot. <<3) How to profit over the long haul on this job migration?>> Invest in Indian banks, Chinese (tollroad, courier, river transport, insurance, bank, real estate, oil/gas, hotel, and certain manufacturing) companies, Australian (smart gun, resource) firms, Canadian energy outfits, and US gold companies. But, watch out for SARS return. I am out of all China/HK shares now. I intend to get back in starting in mid-late October, and stretch the re-entry moves to February/March. Learn to speak Mandarin, as advised by Jimmy Rogers, and get used to trans-Pacific flight demands. In the meantime, I have committed to partnership that will close on this already signed deal, as a concrete indicator of my faith in the new world order achamchen.com , because the world in fact does not end, just the world as we know it ends. BTW, the biggest shop on the ground floor is a "jin hang", a jewelry store and goldsmith shop :0) The area is choked full of mainland tourists seeking a few days of freedom as provided by HK law. Chugs, Jay