Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Canuck Dave who wrote (18800)	8/30/2003 2:45:57 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

Russell now calling for his subscribers to put 1/3 of their liquid net worth in gold, up from 10%. Message 19259731

To: Canuck Dave who wrote (18800)	8/30/2003 3:51:25 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

<billions of people suddenly demanding more of everything> This really isn't new. China's been an increasing factor in the energy for some time. bcaresearch.com Plus food, especially now that they exported and have depleted most of the communist era "rainy day" reserve, and there's been a drought in southern China this summer. That's why I bought a nice position in Dec corn last month at 2.19 and am still holding (from 2.42 currently) for more supply surprises as this overrated harvest gets done. So I agree that the commodity boom isn't going away this month. But you have to be selective about it, especially when this excess liquidity craziness corrects and dissipates. A large function of the commodity moves are supply related, with demand often being secondary. The formula for it? Watch what the commercials do at extremes (ignore the middle ground). For instance in July they were long nearly 100,000 contracts of corn, nearly a record. Is it any surprise that corn rallied? And gold they are short 137,000, LOL. Energy supplies are still tight, yet energy stocks have stayed fairly quite. Commercials are short some here, but except for maybe unleaded, nothing at extreme. Energies have been solid performers, but not the parabolic, crazy stuff. I hope that may come, at which point I'll be having this kind of discussion at the Big Dog Boom Room site. On exits: flags should go up when you see parabolic moves. This is no breakout or "new" bull market in PM stocks. It's the speculative third leg of an old bull market. And as for the Chinese (if you buy your demand argument, which I do), they are much more likely to need $30 oil and $2.42 corn (necessities), then they'll ever need $380 gold (they already hold an undervalued currency).