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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (11329)	8/30/2003 3:34:48 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95617

Here is the weekly data for the SOX. 17 of the 18 stocks in the index were up. - 8/22/03 08/29/03 FST CALL NEXT FST CALL - CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT NXT YR YEAR LNG TRM SYMBOL PRICE PRICE CHANGE EARN PE GROWTH PEG AMD 9.91 11.29 14 -0.28 15 STM 23.05 24.94 8 0.79 32 18 1.75 BRCM 25.80 27.27 6 0.64 43 30 1.42 XLNX 29.23 30.88 6 0.88 35 20 1.75 TXN 22.81 23.85 5 0.62 38 20 1.92 INTC 27.39 28.59 4 0.90 32 15 2.12 KLAC 57.05 59.45 4 1.76 34 20 1.69 MOT 10.31 10.73 4 0.39 28 13 2.13 NSM 28.13 29.14 4 1.09 27 15 1.78 MU 13.89 14.36 3 -0.41 18 TER 17.25 17.83 3 0.46 39 19 2.04 LLTC 40.03 41.24 3 1.07 39 20 1.93 TSM 11.46 11.78 3 0.47 25 25 1.00 MXIM 43.78 44.96 3 1.36 33 25 1.32 LSI 11.35 11.54 2 0.27 43 18 2.37 ALTR 22.13 22.49 2 0.48 47 25 1.87 AMAT 21.30 21.63 2 0.46 47 20 2.32 NVLS 40.02 39.96 0 0.67 60 22 2.71 TOTALS 454.89 471.93 4 11.62 SOX-X 439.66 456.06 4 COMPQX1765.32 1810.45 3

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (11329)	9/3/2003 5:31:54 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95617

Semiconductor Equipment . . . Needham recommends heavy over weighting in the Semi Equipment sector. The firm believes that stocks are still undervalued based on belief that we are heading into an upturn. In a downturn investors collectively use value methods to price equipment stocks, however, in an upturn investors switch to a price earnings method, which should allow significant upside to current price levels that in Needham's view are still reflecting downturn type valuations. Even if the cycle-to-cycle growth is negative 20%, which firm believes could be a worst-case scenario, the stocks are still undervalued. With cycle-to-cycle growth, semiconductor equipment stocks could reasonably be expected to yield returns of 50%to 100% or more over the next 18 to 24 months. Semiconductors . . . Fairchild Semiconductor reaffirmed its expectation third quarter revenue will be sequentially lower by 4-6 percent. It also said order rates and backlog are improving. "While all market segments show strength, cell phones, computing, displays, power supplies, and consumers have been particularly strong so far this quarter," the company said. "Cell phone bookings have been robust with third quarter orders to date greater than our total bookings for either the first or second quarters this year." Altera is the number-two player in the programmable logic devices (PLD) industry—which is highly profitable and enjoys limited competition and high barriers to entry. Historically, PLD companies have consistently realized operating margins over 25%. Two companies (Altera and Xilinx) accounted for over 70% of the market in calendar 2002. Long term, expect Altera to benefit from trends associated with improvements in manufacturing technology. First, expect PLDs to continue to cannibalize application-specific integrated chips (ASICs) as increasing development costs make PLDs more attractive for high-volume applications. Second, PLD companies such as Altera have potentially increased their addressable market sevenfold by integrating digital signal processing (DSP) cores, reduced instruction set computer (RISC) processors, and back-plane transceivers onto their chips. Near term, believe the company will benefit from new product cycles at both the high and low ends of the market. Investment risks include: 1) high exposure to communications, 2) execution and operating risk in fragmented growth markets, and 3) the large installed base of its biggest competitor, Xilinx. robblack.com I just looked at your last post Don. WOW! That really puts things into perspective. Thank you for your time and effort to share this information. RtS