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To: yard_man who wrote (258242)	8/30/2003 5:38:03 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 436258

Refco - [RefcoFX EUR/USD COMMENTS] EUR/USD traded higher today despite strong US consumer spending data and an upside surprise in Chicago PMI. EUR/USD tested the 1.10 level before pulling back during the New York session. The market appears to be trading only on technicals, as the data out of Europe today was uniformly unimpressive--surging Eurozone energy prices (a result of the heat wave), negative retail sales growth in Italy, and a significant increase in French unemployment. Data points remain few and far between this time of year; markets will look to next week’s PMI numbers out of Europe to assess the sustainability of a recovery. [IFR EUR/USD Comments] London, August 29: A European spec account has been a large buyer during the session so far but the 1.0925/30 offers continue to frustrate. EZ data is again poor Friday highlighted by worse than expected Retail Sales numbers from both Germany and Italy. Meanwhile, the stability pact talk continues unabated. Germany's Finance Ministry confirmed a second successive breach of budget deficit rules, by announcing a 2003 deficit of 3.8% of GDP but remain confident of achieving a sub-3.0% result in 2004. If the 'growth card' resumes later, i.e. a continued improvement in US economic numbers helping to underpin the USD, then EUR/USD could be pressured. However, a breakout may not be possible ahead of New York cut when 1.0880 and 1.0920 vanillas expire. This market remains short and the topside appears most vulnerable to a pre-holiday short squeeze. There are a number of stops noted above 1.0930 and through to 1.1010, which could become a target for momentum types later. Technically, daily studies are attempting to turn positive but we prefer to maintain a sell into intraday strength bias while price holds below the 200-day MA at 1.0980. -- Tony.Nyman@Thomson.com --