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Biotech / Medical : SARS and Avian Flu -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chomolungma who wrote (969)	9/2/2003 6:36:24 AM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4232

The issue of co-factors is still wide open. Most viral respiratory illnesses are seasonal. In the US, graphs of testing for flu do not even included data between May and October. The illness essentially "disappears" only to reappear each fall. The reasons for this are not clear. I could give a long list, but there is little hard evidence for individual factors, but overall, flu is very seasonal. Coronaviruses (CoVs) like OC43 and 229E have been known for some time and they cause 15-30% of the colds in humans. In humans colds also have a seasonal component, although not as striking as flu. The SARS outbreak ended quite abruptly, even in places like Taiwan where the case mortality rate was above 25%. The abrupt stop suggests a seasonal component to me. Most of the data for SARS CoV in mild cases comes from the Winnipeg labs in Canada. They found over 100 patients with mild disease (failed to meet case definition of probable or suspect SARS) who tested positive for SARS CoV exposure (antibodies and/or PCR). Their data for Surrey has been very solid, although some are raising the possibility of lab contamination, which could theoretically account for Toronto and Surrey data. Others however have found antibodies to SARS CoV in people in mainland China who are associated with raising or preparing exotic animals such as masked palm civets and raccoon dogs. These animals harbor virus that is almost identical to SARS CoV (Science paper will be available online on Thursday) and the food handlers have antibodies to SARS CoV (as high as 17% of slaughterers and 18% of poultry workers) even though most don't recall symptoms. Thus, it seems clear that SARS CoV can be silently spread and most viral respiratory diseases are seasonal. I believe the Surrey outbreak was SARS, and there is much more to come. There have been no reports of SARS spread to health care workers and no official cases (although I am suspicious about the New Zealand deaths). Time will tell, but I expect a return of SARS with a vengeance from human reservoirs scattered around the world.