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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: At_The_Ask who wrote (80296)	8/31/2003 11:43:22 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Please find links to the 8 hour and daily charts. I am more interested in the short term trend e.g. next week or two as it would be difficult to predict economic developments down the road. I anticipate a slow down in US economy due the collapse of REFI which will drag the USD lower IMHO. home.nyc.rr.com and daily chart home.nyc.rr.com as a general remark the EUR equivalent was at present levels during spring of 1998 to end of 1998 just before the launch of the EUR at around 1.17. The slide to 0.82 was precipitated by the US stock bubble and restriction on free currency conversion (you needed to declare how you earned the money. During 1995 teh EUR hit 1.35 at that time we had a flat stock market, not to mention 1991/2 recession were the EUR was 1.45 home.nyc.rr.com

To: At_The_Ask who wrote (80296)	8/31/2003 12:08:19 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 209892

Loking at the daily and weekly chart I can not justify the parity for the EUR with the present US trade deficit and budget deficits. If I would compare the last recognized recession in the US during 1992/3 when we were in a similar situation of very slow recovery and just after a military victory in the ME the EUR was 1.45 to the USD. THe sharp slide during 1999 trough 2000 could be also attributed to elimination of the US budget deficit and the US stock bubble which attracted substantial amount of capital neutralizing the trade deficit which at the time was about 50% of the current trade deficit