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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (18863)	8/31/2003 1:42:06 PM
From: jrhana	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

Basicly what I have been reading from Richard Russell is that he believes that we are in a primary gold market and that it is generally not worth trying to trade it-That one should have both the metal and the shares. <The public is not even aware the gold is rising in terms of dollars. Right now we have a thin, investor's market in gold. Here's a question -- who of your friends have bought any gold or gold shares? Do you know anyone who has bought any gold? The answer is most cases is "No, none of my friends own any gold. As a matter of fact, when I mention gold they look at me as though I was nuts. What, you own gold? Hey, I don't even know how or where to buy gold. Gold, hmmm, what a thought." And that's how I know that we're still in the first phase of the gold bull market. This is the phase where informed investors take positions in an item because they believe that item is undervalued but near or actually in a bull market. That's where I think gold is now -- in the accumulation phase. Gold is now being accumulated by seasoned, informed investors who believe that precious metals now represent great values.> He recomends buying the metal and the stocks <Question -- What gold and silver stocks do you recommend? Answer -- The top quality and the one stock you must own is NEM. Then you can own PDG, AEM, RGLD and I'm adding ABX, AU and ASA. Others I like are GG, GLG. Other more speculative stocks are CBJ, CDE, KGC, DROOY, EGO, WHT, SSRI, PAAS.> A comment he made after Wednesday's big surge: <Today was a big day for gold shares, and happily was not commented on by CNBC. We'll see if the WSJ even mentions gold tomorrow. And the "stealth" bull market in gold continues. I'm already receiving e-mails from people who have been trading in-and-out of the gold shares, and most were out of today's move.> He does however hedge himself a little now: <Gold shares are leveraged since as gold rises. At each individual mine, the cost of mining gold remains fairly stable. Thus, as the price of their product rises, a mine's profits rise exponentially. This in turn means that as the price of gold works higher the gold stocks will tend to outpace the metal. Subscribers who have accumulated gold shares as I suggested that do, now must have attractive paper profits. In fact, many of you may have almost obscene profits. For this reason, it just might be time for the gold stocks to take a "time out." That doesn't have to happen, but it's a thought. I'm asked where I think the gold bull market is going? And my answer is two-fold. My first answer is that I haven't any idea where the gold bull market is going. A basic thesis of Dow Theory is that neither the duration nor the extent of a primary movement can be predicted in advance. The second part of my answer is this -- My experience with most bull and bear markets is that they will go farther than anyone thinks possible. And that all I have to say about the primary bull market in gold, at least that all I have to say about it -- today.> I haven't found the comment where he suggest upping exposure to gold to 35%

To: russwinter who wrote (18863)	9/1/2003 10:24:30 AM
From: austrieconomist	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 39344

Russell/HUI/gold/gold stocks. Thanks for your comments. I am not an authority on Russell any more than anyone else (although I have been reading him since 1973) and this is not a Russell thread. jrhana has posted what are the fairly relevant points (18869). He does advise PM stock positions although they are an adjunct to his beliefs on the gold price -- that gold is money, currencies are fiat, and that we are entering a long cycle of unknown duration that the world's investing population is recognizing the difference and will be shifting out of currencies and into unleveraged hard assets including gold. He does not believe, as many on this thread do, that it is advisable to trade in and out of the stock positions -- the risk of trading out of the long trend is too great. I think that many on this thread are the exceptions. For myself, however, I will stay invested for the most part and only cull the weakest stocks from my PF during "overbought" peaks, such as now (names that I am culling are CDU, overweight position in RDU, TNK and SJD. I will be looking at IVN ... it has been a nice ride from C$3... to possibly reduce an overweight position around September 9 to coincide with Friedland's appearance at the New York Gold Show). No new adds at this time.