Should we give California back to Mexico?
Latino vote key to recall victory, say experts
Most are expected to come out in favor of Bustamante
James Sterngold, Chronicle Staff Writer
Sunday, August 31, 2003
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Los Angeles -- As CEO of a thriving, family-owned health care company, Ruth Lopez- Williams says she sympathizes with Republican efforts to slash regulations and taxes, and she expresses mixed feelings about how much Gov. Gray Davis has really helped entrepreneurs like herself.
But when asked about her views on the recall election, Lopez-Williams, who is also the chairwoman of the Latin Business Association in Los Angeles, is unequivocal: She says she and the other members of her organization are largely opposed to the recall because of the disruptions it would cause and, when forced to choose a replacement candidate, will throw their support overwhelmingly to Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, the only well-known Democrat in the race.
"Davis has not necessarily been business-friendly in the long term," Lopez- Williams said. "Absolutely, we have some frustrations with him. But from the Latino perspective, we certainly view Davis as more friendly to our interests overall than the last governor. That's why I think, in the business community, Latinos are fairly united in their opposition to the recall and even more by support for Bustamante."
She is not alone. Many Republicans and some of the candidates have claimed that Latinos, the state's largest minority group, and particularly Latino entrepreneurs are just as disillusioned with Davis as they are. But experts who study Latinos and many Latino leaders say they anticipate that the community, which traditionally votes Democratic, will vote heavily against the recall and even more heavily in favor of Bustamante, who could become the first Latino governor in more than a century.
In fact, many experts say the Latino vote could hold the secret to this odd electoral exercise, enhancing the power of the Latino community significantly in the process. There are more than 130 candidates to replace Davis. Although only a handful are serious, the vote might well be fragmented, which means that the next governor might be chosen with as little as 20 percent to 30 percent of the vote.
The math has played right into the hands of this growing ethnic minority. If Latinos, who make up about 17 percent of the state's registered voters, turn out in great numbers and vote more or less as a bloc, in line with their registration, they could well be the factor that defines state politics on Oct.
7 and in the future.
"I don't think it's hyperbole," said Harry Pachon, president of the Tomas Rivera Policy Institute at the University of Southern California. "When people realize Bustamante has a real chance, it will tend to bring out Latino voters. Latinos could very well play a more important role this time than in any other election."
James Aguirre, head of the Mexican American Bar Association Political Action Committee, said his group has targeted this election as a major opportunity for Latinos to flex their political muscle. It plans to raise money to defeat the recall and support Bustamante. In addition, he said, his group and other Latino organizations are planning to spend heavily to defeat Proposition 54, which would prohibit the state from collecting data under most circumstances on the ethnicity of people using state services.
Some Republicans have rejected the notion that all Latinos will vote in tandem, but many also concede that the GOP has yet to organize an effective effort to win over more conservative Latino voters."I would view it as insulting to say they all vote in the same way, because they don't," said Ken Khachigian, a Republican consultant who helped get the recall on the ballot. "Like every taxpayer who relies on government services, they have suffered under this governor."
He added, "I don't see any candidate getting buried in some kind of Latino landslide."
In general, Latino voters have held traditional, slightly conservative views on social issues and more liberal views on state spending. Consequently, Democratic social programs hold great appeal, but Republicans also attract some businessmen and women as well as those who oppose abortion and favor school prayer.
The best bet for Republicans, then, is to appeal to Latino entrepreneurs. But even within the business community there appears to be a growing view that they should support Bustamante.
Roberto Barragan, president of the Valley Economic Development Center, a nonprofit organization that helps small businesses in the San Fernando Valley, expressed strong opposition to Davis because of what he said was his gutting of programs that benefited small business owners. But he said he believed Latino businessmen would largely vote in one direction, and that was likely to be in favor of Bustamante.
"It's less about Democrats and Republicans and more on ethnic lines," said Barragan.
Arnold Schwarzenegger has sought to appeal to Latinos and other minorities by speaking often of his experience as an immigrant from Austria struggling to build a life in this country. But, some experts say, he has harmed that appeal with his support in 1994 of Proposition 187, which would have denied state services for undocumented immigrants in the state.
In addition, some Latino groups have complained about Schwarzenegger's position on the advisory board of an organization called U.S. English, which promotes the designation of English as the official language, as opposed to bilingualism, which many Latinos support.
Sean Walsh, a spokesman for Schwarzenegger, said the candidate believes in the importance of English, especially for immigrants seeking to succeed, but that he has not been active in the group for some time and would resign if he is elected governor.
Barragan said he did not believe that the support for Proposition 187 would be a major factor among business people. A more important issue, he said, is Schwarzenegger's opposition to a bill that would allow undocumented immigrants to obtain driver's licenses. Latinos heavily support that effort.
In the gubernatorial election last November, Latinos voted 65 percent in favor of Davis and 24 percent for the Republican challenger, Bill Simon, according to a Los Angeles Times exit poll.
But those who are courting the Latino vote this time are taking no chances. Miguel Contreras, executive secretary-treasurer of the Los Angeles County Federation of Labor, said that his union is planning everything from direct mail to door-to-door canvassing in opposition to the recall of Davis and in favor of Bustamante, focusing on Latinos.
He said that there are about 550,000 Latinos in the state regarded as highly likely to vote on Oct. 7, based on past voting patterns, leaving about 1.1 million Latino voters up in the air, a highly significant number if they can be energized and motivated to turn out.
"That is the group that will make the difference," said Contreras. |
