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To: Square_Dealings who wrote (80305)8/31/2003 7:35:45 PM
From: John Madarasz  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
Take a look at the $ vs Comex Gold since the July 16 lows for AU... the relationship is pretty normal actually...gold went higher while the $ went sideways and built momentum to break out of the tri...i think that 97.50 area could be pretty strong support...$ could still go sideways agn and build more momentum, and gold could still move higher here due to the very strong cycle tendencies in play. I kind of think that's what will happen...GC COT's notwithstanding ;~)

boomspeed.com



To: Square_Dealings who wrote (80305)8/31/2003 9:05:39 PM
From: nspolar  Respond to of 209892
 
Michael, at the moment I would look at:

US Treasuries - more weakness ahead appears probable.
Gold stocks - strong and always lead gold. Always.
Gold - recently strong versus the dollar. The DEC futs
appear to have clearly broken out.
Dollar - struggling, clearly. The DEC futs just need confirmation of a serious problem.
Gen equities - have to be at an end or nearing an end of large corrections. A last blast is possible.

I think at this juncture you look to the futs, and the DEC futs are the best. Secondarily I think you look at all the levers, and it appears a serious problem is at hand.

The levers probably use fuzzy logic and are continually reprogrammed, but at this stage I would use gold to predict dollar movements.

If bonds continue down (rates up) and dollar goes down as well, Al has a most serious situation.

I'm satisfied where I am at with pm's, until the charts tell me otherwise. I'm also starting to think we may go from gold ops (a top) to a very good gen market shorting op. Gold equities don't have to put in a sharp top either, we may get a huge rounded top. Just because the past did as it always did, doesn't mean the future will be the same.

Finally it pays to be aware of what gold is doing vis a vis other currencies .... and this evening it is more than holding its own on the TOCOM. For some time gold and silver on the TOCOM have been in quasi back.

tocom.or.jp