washingtonpost.com
For Kerry, Playing Catch-up
Overtaken by Dean, Senator Seeks to Revive Campaign
By Jim VandeHei and Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, September 1, 2003; Page A01
As the make-or-break fall campaign season commences for the Democratic presidential contenders, Sen. John F. Kerry -- once considered by many the front-runner for the nomination -- is struggling to catch fire in early voting states and adapt to the sudden and race-altering surge of rival Howard Dean.
Kerry, a Democrat from Massachusetts and a Vietnam war hero, has lost significant ground to Dean in recent months, as he has come under fire for sounding ambivalent on the Iraq war and for failing to connect with the antiwar, anti-Bush voters dominating the nominating process. He has struck many Democrats as aloof and indecisive, even as advisers sought to portray him as the only candidate with the stature and stamina to defeat President Bush. Several Democrats said Kerry's campaign often reflects the key weakness of Al Gore's in 2000: relying too heavily on a team of big-name strategists and too little on letting the candidate run loose.
"I don't think I've kicked my campaign off sufficiently," Kerry said yesterday on NBC's "Meet the Press." "I am going to reach out to the country and be as clear as a bell about the leadership I offer." Kerry will officially announce his candidacy Tuesday in South Carolina and will run his first political ads of the campaign this week.
Kerry has plenty of time, money and skills to catch up, fellow Democrats say. The campaign, by historical standards, is in its infancy. Nine candidates have been running for eight months, but polls show few voters have tuned in long enough to recognize many, if any, of the faces. The next four-plus months, however, will be decisive.
The fall campaign begins with Dean as the dominant force in the race -- the clear front-runner in New Hampshire, battling Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (Mo.) in Iowa and building the biggest and best-funded operations in other states holding early contests.
Dean, a former Vermont governor, is pulling way ahead in raising money, projecting he will rake in at least $10 million this quarter. Many Democrats think it will be closer to $15 million. Kerry and Gephardt, who along with Dean make up the top tier of the early campaign, will have a hard time raising half that much, their aides say.
Dean might raise the stakes in the months ahead: He is considering opting out of the public campaign finance system, which would allow him to raise as much as he can to win the nomination. The public system caps spending at $45 million for the primary. Kerry said he might opt out, too, if Dean does.
Dean is also setting the tone and pace for what is shaping up as the most competitive Democratic primary in decades. The physician-turned-politician has railed against Bush, blasting the war effort in Iraq and calling for a complete repeal of Bush's tax cuts. Other candidates, including Kerry, followed by sharpening their rhetoric, particularly on the war.
Dean also has run television ads in key states more than four months before voters go to the polls. This is forcing other campaigns to adjust their plans and consider spending money much earlier. Kerry and Gephardt will go up with ads this week, aides say.
Dean's surge also has made it even harder for Sens. Joseph I. Lieberman (Conn.) and John Edwards (N.C.) to break into the top tier. Both candidates are campaigning as more moderate alternatives to Dean, but neither has moved up significantly in Iowa and New Hampshire. Like Dean, Edwards has gone up with early ads. Unlike Dean, he is not getting much of a boost.
Lieberman and Edwards are likely to hang in until next year to see if Dean knocks out Kerry and Gephardt early, at which point voters might start shopping for a candidate who is more electable nationwide than the Vermont Democrat, according to their aides. Already, the other campaigns talk of a two-person race developing -- their candidate vs. Dean.
Still, Dean has yet to face the scrutiny and pressure that comes with being seen as the front-runner. It also is unknown whether he can broaden his support beyond the most active -- and liberal -- of Democrats.
Although the race remains wildly unpredictable, the contours are taking shape. Dean is emerging as the antiwar, anti-Bush fire breather who is bringing new -- mainly younger -- voters into a new age campaign conducted in large part in chat rooms and other Internet meeting places.
Kerry is the war hero who can neutralize Bush on military matters, which some strategists say will dominate the general election. Gephardt is the workingman's candidate, almost singularly focused on winning the AFL-CIO's endorsement in mid-October and enlisting union foot soldiers in key states.
Edwards is the telegenic Southerner running as the 2004 version of Bill Clinton without the personal baggage. And Lieberman, Gore's running mate in 2000, is the pragmatic centrist and unabashed supporter of the Iraq war who can appeal to independents. The other four candidates are not considered by most Democrats as capable of winning the nomination.
The race could turn even wilder if retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark jumps in this month.
Starting this week, voters will get a better chance to measure the nine contenders. The Democratic candidates will meet Thursday night in Albuquerque for the first of a series of debates sanctioned by the Democratic National Committee and aired nationally on television.
They will meet again for debates Sept. 9 and Sept. 25. In between, they will come together for a steak fry in Iowa, where Clinton will be the featured speaker.
No candidate is under more pressure than Kerry to turn things around during these events.
Starting with his announcement Tuesday in front of the USS Constitution, Kerry is looking to shift the focus of the campaign to preparation and experience, instead of who can deliver the angriest attack on Bush. In virtually every appearance, he stresses his military service and ability to stand toe-to-toe with Bush on what many consider among the president's greatest political strengths: national security.
Several strategists said he's going to have to run on more than his biography and offer voters a clear agenda, which so far he hasn't done.
Kerry has had a difficult time capitalizing on his military credentials, in large part because he has sent mixed signals on his support for the war in Iraq. He voted for the congressional resolution last year authorizing the war while warning Bush not to rush to judgment.
Since then, he has been highly critical of the intelligence Bush used to rationalize the war (much of which Kerry used to justify his support) and the president's refusal to solicit a bigger U.N. role in the military operation. On NBC's "Meet the Press" yesterday, Kerry said he still supports the war and wants Congress to appropriate more money to stabilize and rebuild Iraq, but opposes sending in more U.S. troops to carry out the mission.
"We are in danger -- if we don't do what we need to do in the next months -- of having an enormous quagmire," Kerry said. Dean and Lieberman have criticized Kerry for trying to have it both ways on the war.
Even if Kerry can synthesize his views into a clear and consistent campaign message, polls show many Democrats won't be receptive to it. A majority of Democrats oppose spending more money in Iraq and favor pulling out if the situation doesn't improve quickly.
This speaks to a larger problem Kerry faces: Some of his policies don't excite many liberals. Kerry would repeal only those Bush tax cuts tailored to wealthy Americans; Dean and Gephardt would get rid of them all. Kerry also wants to build a bigger military.
His problems extend beyond the issues. Kerry often doesn't look comfortable in his own skin, said Donna Brazile, who managed Gore's campaign in 2000. "It's like someone put him in clothes that don't fit," she said. "It's almost like he is being dragged behind by a weight you cannot see."
Several Democrats said that "weight" is Kerry's huge roster of strategists and pollsters. Veterans of the Gore campaign said the presence of too many strategists often creates an atmosphere in which aides are jockeying for the candidate's ear and thinking the campaign into political paralysis.
"They may be a victim of having too many smart people," a Republican strategist said. "When you have so many, sometimes you never make a decision."
Jim Jordan, Kerry's campaign manager, said: "That's unfair and extremely untrue. The team around John Kerry is tight and very functional." It also has been purposely slow to respond to Dean.
Jerry Crawford, Kerry's chairman in Iowa, said Kerry has held back through the summer, despite losing ground to Dean, on the belief that what happens in the next few months will count far more. "The July-August momentum has never been very important and the September-October-November momentum is," Crawford said.
Waiting has come at a cost. Dean's summer surge not only has put Kerry in serious trouble in New Hampshire, a state Kerry must win next year, but also has resulted in a fundraising bonanza that guarantees Dean will have as much or more money than any rival to help weather the inevitable attacks and setbacks he will encounter.
"Obviously, the path to the finish line is a lot easier with a New Hampshire win," Jordan said. The most recent poll shows Dean blowing by Kerry in New Hampshire with a 21-point lead.
"They underestimated the message of this campaign from the beginning," said Joe Trippi, Dean's campaign manager. Jordan said Kerry's campaign didn't see the Dean boom coming, but insisted Kerry will silence it in the months ahead. "The preseason is over -- time for the real game to begin," Jordan said. |
