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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Square_Dealings who wrote (80323)	9/1/2003 1:36:04 PM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

I just notice that the last time the dollar was at this level (around 4/03) gold was at 335. Now its at 375 so there must not be a direct correlation of the dollar and gold. Gold is gaining ground. FWIW, with the exception of the last month, Comex Gold and the US Dollar have realized an almost exact inverse relationship during that timeframe on the daily chart...not to mention the larger timeframe from Feb 1, 2002. Obviously it's no holy grail, but I still think it's worth ones while to track the two indices as they clearly show a correlating relationship that can't be denied...and could certainly have been used for short term trading with other signals. Gold has been moving up from a very strong cyclical bottom in mid July...as of the 8/29/03 session close we are 67 TD's into an existing 79.83 TD cycle for comex gold on the daily. In bull markets cycles have a tendency to right translate and come in early...so while i agree with you that only the deepest of pockets would want to be short, there's still a preponderance of signals flashing top in the very near future imo. The Commercial COT traders have enjoyed an excellent success rate when placed in the context of the 81TD cycle for comex gold also back to the Feb 2001 bottom...there is no denying that fact either when looking at an overlay chart. All this nonsense about the commercial traders being on the wrong side in Gold is just that imo...my work clearly shows me this 388.90 is the big # imo...not the 400-425 figure that seems to be all but taken for granted here...this is early in what would appear to be a 10-15 year secular bull mkt for gold... no need to do it all in one push <g> As always just my best guess fwiw Extremely interesting times indeed ;~) Best, jm