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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (534)	9/2/2003 9:44:52 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

For China and it's FX policies are a big question mark. Not sure why to go out and raise money but on the other hand I understand that China is not running a huge trade surplus as a country

To: russwinter who wrote (534)	9/2/2003 10:08:22 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

good China article in Friday's WallStJournal Europe edition on front page of Money & Investing section "Yuan Demand Grows on Hope of Revaluation" tremendous buying pressure for yuan externally demand is coming from outside the sphere of govt controls many ordinary Chinese bringing back money home, eyeing a vibrant economy could represent a reversal of the Asian Meltdown money flows out encounter a closed door money flowing in encounters an open door private inflow grossly outpacing corp trade surplus levels Chinese Govt is issuing fresh now shorterm Notes to soak demand yuan-carry trade has been born, with 1.2% delta a real estate bubble might be forming hastened pace of setting up mfg capacity some experts believe the yuan is about 20% undervalued my opinion: a new market for floating dollars could emerge, much like the EuroDollar to make funds availalbe for business incorporation without the effect of conversion to yuan from dollars probably for the same reason: illiquid alternatives to dollars I have no links, nor the full text from online sources this was read on a flight back to USA the conclusion is that govts can prevent conversion of dollars domestically but they cannot prevent demand for yuan from outside the big danger is bubble creation in both real estate and mfg capacity with an undervalued yuan currency Chinese leaders are standing off against Trez Secy Snow now but they have an internal risk of bubbles that needs to be addressed I see a 10-12% yuan peg revalue upward that will be meaningless but will silence American jerkweeds what the yuan needs is a 25-30% revalue on peg by 2006 the yuan will be twice its current level / jim