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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BWAC who wrote (11368)	9/2/2003 5:40:47 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95617

Semiconductor Equipment . . . Ultratech Stepper started with a Buy at Berean Capital. Price target $40. Berean Capital initiates coverage with a Buy rating and $40 target, citing the following factors: company is a turnaround story with a compelling product portfolio, Laser Thermal Processing is a disruptive technology and is already gaining traction, and the co is well-positioned in Bump processing with stepper technology, which is one of the fastest growing segments in assembly and packaging. Semiconductors . . . Merrill Lynch note comments on The Semiconductor Industry Association or SIA numbers, which suggests the three-month rolling average billings for the month of July grew +11% year/year. The $12.9 billion rolling average grew +3% sequentially from June's average of $12.5 billion. Actual July billings of $12.2 billion decreased 16% month/month, which is in line with the historical average. In addition, July billings were also up 11% year/year and essentially continues the trend of double-digit year/year comparisons that began in Jul-02. Firm is leaving its worldwide billings forecasts unchanged for 2003 and 2004. National Semi upgraded at Soundview to Outperform from Neutral based on their belief that near-term pricing risk has been mitigated, and firm expects a strong 2H03 from the co's wireless biz; firm also thinks that the stock will benefit from multiple expansion over the next several quarters due to the co's improved margin structure as well as what appears to be the beginning of a broader recovery. Target is $35. SIA released Jul-03 data on Saturday. The 3MMA revenue growth was relatively flat at 10.5% Year over Year, compared to 10.4% in Jun-03, while unit growth slowed to 0.3% Year over Year from 1.3% in June. Revenue growth was slightly better than our estimate of 9.0%, while unit growth was slightly below our estimate of 1.7%. The 3MMA ASP increased 2.7% Month over Month to $0.433 from $0.422 in Jun-03, and improved 10% Year over Year. On a sequential monthly basis, revenue and units came in at $12.2 billion (-16% Month over Month) and 27.9bn (-16% Month over Month), compared with estimates of $11.7 billion (-19% Month over Month) and 29.1billio (-12% Month over Month). The stronger than expected ASP was due to a solid month from analog, MPU and DRAM, which attribute to strong notebook sales and Intel’s success with the Centrino and an early start to the back to school season. Flash revenues decreased 17% Month ovre Month and units were down 22% Month over Month. However, prices remained strong and increased for the fourth consecutive month, by 6% Month/Month and 3% Quarter/Quarter. This is in line with previous observations that flash prices have seen a pick up due to stronger NAND and NOR demand from the handset and consumer devices markets. DRAM revenues (11% of total) increased 10% and units were up 1%. Note that though July has seen a third straight month of increase in revenues, spot pricing has been flat through August. Among other major product groups, analog revenues (17% of total) were down 16% Month over Month and up 3% Year over Year. Standard cell and PLD revenues were flat Month over Month and up 11% Year over Year. MCU and DSPs revenues were down 8% Month over Month and up 7% Year over Year. The SIA data essentially indicates that the ASP environment continues to improve, with positive Year over Year ASP growth since Mar-03. ASP Year over Year comparisons have continually improved since Sep-01 (-22% Year over Year). For the full year 2003, we continue to forecast industry revenue and unit growth of 9% and 6% respectively, and expect growth to accelerate in 2004, with low-to-mid-teens revenue growth. RobBlack.com MarketWrap robblack.com So the market is going up without pause until 2005 when you have to pay off your credit card debt? You will be ordering loads of semiconductor capital equipment won't you? <gg> ;-) RtS