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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (18066)	9/3/2003 3:31:31 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Respond to of 57684

I agree the tech stocks have run a little far, a little fast. But the problem is, especially the networking sector has been running on fumes for 3 years. I'm talking about zero business and that is not sustainable. Today Chambers guided up, anyone can see this had to happen eventually. The only sector I am unsure of is software. We may have a fundamental business shift to deal with there. But the other stuff, networkers and chips and other infrastructure plays have to go up 50% just to be valued appropriately for maintenance business. Take Ciena for example, they were doing 450mm/qtr in the bubble and are now down to 60mm. The real maintenance sales environment for them is probably something like 125mm/qtr. That is just a healthy maintenance environment not new growth. The carriers haven't spent anything on capex in 3 years. And Europe is in a depressionary climate, just reversion to the mean is a big jump for these guys.