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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Drbob512 who wrote (79874)	9/4/2003 7:07:10 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 100058

I get out of the way when the sum of all market factors donot add up to where we are. I have several gold hedges that i have held since April as a contrarian play to the pop in the markets into the war. I have done some serious research into how an economic recovery can hold when employment continues to drop off and my conclusion is simple. We have numerous funds and others such as CNBC riding the WAR BOOM and causing the public concern that the train has left the station. In retrospect the train is heading in the wrong direction if we are to have a sustained, meaningful, and intrenched recovery in our BUSINESS ECONOMY. The consumer holding up this level is a failure waiting to happen. Greenspan screwed up again just as he did when he bailed out LTCM and lowered rates to prop the market. Many forget what started the CRASH of 2000, it was RISING RATES FROM THE FED. If I am correct he had raised rates 3 times and the market continues to surge. I took the rising of rates as a clear sign to get out or short. In todays market enviroment with the Fed playing with market futures on a daily basis it creates a FALSE sense of security. At some point and probably soon, you will notice the Fed will try to allow market to stand on its own and when it does look out. Fed lowered rates and allowed the consumer to become so indebt that any possible move UP by the FED will have a worse effect then the 2000 fall. This time the consumer which carried this move will be the trigger that reverses and in a flash. In 2000 it was the Business economy, today its the Consumer economy. The bet which cannot work is Consumer economy holds up markets as Business gets its footing. This is flawed because the Business economy cannot expand without raising prices. You cannot raise prices if you have 100 companies making the same gadget when only 20 companies need that Gadget. So why have business's shown improvment? It simple they are laying off and reducing inventory to show hogher % of quarterly growth. (I hope I don't have to say whats wrong with that picture going forward) Bottom line we still have deminishing DEMAND and OVERSUPPLY!