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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (32242)	9/4/2003 2:44:37 PM
From: Little Joe	Respond to of 36161

Claude: I think you are right. They will pump money until we have hyper inflation and then if forced we will have the depression. I think Greenspan thinks we can inflate our way out of this mess. The question is will the mess that creates be worse than the one we are in. Little joe

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (32242)	9/4/2003 2:54:52 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

Claude. <can only lead in one direction.> Not true. There are major cycles of inflation and major cycles of deflation. In a secular or super cycle deflationary trend - such as we now find ourselves in - the debt burden is far TOO BIG for monetary policy to wipe away via inflation. Such a overwhelming level of debt only disappears via a massive tidal wave of defaults. The financial system implodes forcing a massive contraction in global economic activity and world trade. Overall indices of prices and wages fall. The CBs monetary arsenal in such a situation is like using pea shooters to fight King Kong! Other than isolated pockets of rising prices...... THERE WILL BE NO INFLATION!! During a primary deflation, everything seems to feed into the trend: Terrorism has already brought about a huge contraction in international travel and tourism. Air lines are likely to continue going BK, left and right. In just a couple of years, the annual US gov budget swings for a surplus to enormous deficits. And unless the war on terror suddenly comes to an end, those crushing deficits are going to continue AFA the eye can see as we fight armed conflicts all over the globe. This rapid swing to large gov deficits on top of the already over indebted consumer and corporate sectors is rapidly driving up interest rates which will abort the nascent US recovery sometime next year - at the latest. A renewed recession in the US will result in a sharp decline in demand for those export goods that ALL this Chinese prosperity is based upon. Once their exports to the US go south? Their 7% annual economic growth rate will drop like a stone. That will put a damper on hourly wages in China AWA the rest of Asia. Meaning, less demand from that huge reservoir of emerging consumers. Also deflationary. I could go on and on. But I'm not interested in belaboring the obvious. We are in a super cycle deflationary cycle of enormous power that's going to last for years. Right now? I'm going out to spend a little more of this mountain of YTD profits.<g> If there's time, I'll pop in tonight. Have a good day, Isopatch