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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (3528)	9/4/2003 6:00:17 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4907

re bonds -- more from our ghost participant (I am confused -- deficits are records, no?? I kinda think they DO matter and that rates have to rise to compensate for the risks associated with USD decline I also think that many financial folks here will have to sell some bonds to hedge their exposure if rates on the 10 yr break well above 4.6 and stay there -- so we get a feedback effect. I think it will take more time than Heinz thinks -- but that is just MY guess -- lower rates after everything goes to crap?? maybe -- it makes sense, I guess.) Date: Thu Sep 04 2003 13:38 trotsky (Pyrite@bonds) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved my take remains unaltered at this stage. i don't know how deep the correction will become before it reverses, but i eventually expect new lows in yields...if you were to press me for timing, i'd say within 6 to 9 months time. coincident with the capitulatione leg of this first cyclcical-bear-within-the-secular-bear in stocks. iow, the current rally in the stock market has to first play out to its consclusion...that could happen within the next few weeks imo. a bond rally is likely to begin once the distribution phase in stocks commences. i realize i'm virtually alone with this view...practically every bond expert and market timer is hugely bearish on bonds, and generally there is a consensus that the 20-year bull market has topped out. so take it FWIW...if you believe me, you'll have to disbelieve scores of experts. note that i don't think the deficit matters in this context, at least not yet. the risk aversion strategies of investors that i expect to reassert themselves will overpower this source of supply imo.