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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: JohnM who wrote (6789)9/5/2003 12:46:49 AM
From: Nadine Carroll  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 793845
 
I agree that political considerations are favoring the UN turnaround. I think it's a case where the Joint Chiefs, Powell and Rove all had common cause for this one thing. I don't think that in itself it portends a new alliance for the future, though of course it may have implications.

I don't see any neocon vs Rumsfield split at all; in fact, I think that Rumsfield and the neocons are together on the losing side of this issue. The neocons were saying we don't need more troops, things are going ok, we just need to close the borders, fight the jihadists harder and lean on Saudi Arabia for real. And they're still saying that, as witness Steven Schwartz' article just posted.

I just saw Fouad Ajami on Charlie Rose, together with some imbecile woman from a think tank whose name I forget. Even Charlie Rose couldn't abide her, though she was as liberal as he was. After she dismissed all humanitarian grounds for the war in Iraq as meaningless and irrelevant, Charlie Rose asked her, what was the rationale for the war in Bosnia and Kosovo? She was kind of stuck at that, not liking to admit that humanitarian rationales are admissible only under Democratic Presidents.



To: JohnM who wrote (6789)9/5/2003 5:00:15 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793845
 
Some interesting Political History.

JOHN FUND'S POLITICAL DIARY WJS.com
The New Nixon?
The specter of 1962 haunts Schwarzenegger's campaign.

Friday, September 5, 2003 12:01 a.m.

Is Arnold Schwarzenegger another Ronald Reagan? Actually, his campaign is showing more similarities to Richard Nixon's failed 1962 bid for the California governorship--which ended with him telling the press corps, "You won't have Richard Nixon to kick around anymore"--than with Mr. Reagan's upset victory for the same office four years later.

In 1962 Nixon made a critical miscalculation. The former vice president failed to win over his party's conservative grass roots. That opened up an opportunity for a real conservative to challenge him in the primary. Joe Shell, a dynamic state legislator from Los Angeles and a former University of Southern California football star, ended up winning 35% of the primary vote. Nixon never convinced Mr. Shell's voters that he'd govern from the right, if elected. Much of the GOP base refused to volunteer for Nixon and on Election Day stayed home, allowing the incumbent Democrat, Gov. Pat Brown, to win.

Nixon, like Mr. Schwarzenegger now, was the celebrity candidate, and he initially remained coy about whether he'd enter the race. Mr. Shell entered the race thinking that Nixon wouldn't run, and he stayed in the race to fight for his conservative principles. Mr. Schwarzenegger has to be asking himself now if state Sen. Tom McClintock will play the same spoiler role that Mr. Shell did more than 40 years ago.

Of course, Nixon was able to stage a stunning comeback only six years later, narrowly winning the GOP presidential nomination in 1968 and going on to win the White House. But he did that only by wooing influential conservatives like Sen. Strom Thurmond of South Carolina and Clarke Reed of Mississippi.

Also in 1968 a 21-year-old Austrian bodybuilder came to the United States. Mr. Schwarzenegger followed the presidential campaign by asking a friend to translate some of the TV coverage. "I listened to Nixon talk about free enterprise, opening up . . . trade with the whole world, getting government off your back, lowering taxes and strengthening the military," Mr. Schwarzenegger recalled this week in an interview with talk show host Michael Medved. "So I turned to my friend . . . and said, 'I am a Republican!' This is the philosophy I believe in."

After Wednesday night's debate--which Mr. Schwarzenegger skipped--it is clear to everyone that Mr. McClintock is the conservative in the race. At that debate Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante and the other two liberals in the race offered only the kind of solutions that put the Golden State in such disarray. Businessman Peter Ueberroth, a Republican, seemed unfocused.

It was Mr. McClintock who presented a crisp conservative message that contrasted sharply with Mr. Schwarzenegger's vagueness. Mr. McClintock has clearly mastered the problems awaiting the next governor, and he has specific budget solutions in mind--promising to hold the line on taxes, cut spending and eliminate business-killing regulations.

While Mr. Schwarzenegger isn't generating anything close to the level of hostility among conservatives that Nixon did in 1962, his refusal so far to debate or flesh out his views has made it difficult to win over the right. Only 39% of registered Republicans in the latest Los Angeles Times poll said they support him, although that number probably understates his strength.

Mr. Schwarzenegger got off to a bad start early when campaign adviser Warren Buffett touched the third rail in California politics: Proposition 13. The Oracle of Omaha indicated that property taxes should be raised. Mr. Schwarzenegger has since repudiated Mr. Buffett's views, but the damage was done. Internal polls taken for another candidate found that half of Republicans identified Mr. Schwarzenegger with possible increases in property taxes.

The candidate than fell into the same trap himself by refusing to sign a pledge not to raise taxes and said he might raise taxes in an "emergency." That sounded an awful lot like something Pete Wilson said in his successful 1990 bid for the governorship. Once in office, Mr. Wilson discovered an "emergency"--an economic recession--and raised taxes. Mr. Wilson is now a campaign adviser for Mr. Schwarzenegger.

Mr. Schwarzenegger further gave Mr. McClintock an opening by waiting two weeks to reveal his views on gay marriage and other hot-button social issues. Having failed to nail down his conservative flank early, Mr. Schwarzenegger has less time now to appeal to middle-of-the-road voters.

For a first-time candidate, Mr. Schwarzenegger also demonstrates a surprising lack of interest in contacting the grass roots of the party. He jokes that "20 years of dinners with the Kennedy clan haven't made me a Democrat," but Republican leaders I spoke with say they haven't gotten a letter from him or an invitation to listen in on any conference calls. "All the signals you get are of a staff that wants to protect the candidate from something," says one head of a Republican volunteer group. "He should be willing to have contact with Republican activists who can't afford a high-dollar ticket to one of his fundraisers."

Mr. Schwarzenegger's overly protective campaign has so far generated mostly puzzled anxiety among Republicans. If Mr. McClintock continues to do well in debates and Mr. Schwarzenegger continues to duck them and avoid specifics, their anxiety will only grow. If a focused Mr. McClintock remains in the race through the election, he very well could become another Joe Shell--a conservative hero who denied a moderate Republican an electoral victory.

Pete Wilson, who has become a political mentor to Mr. Schwarzenegger, should remember all this. After losing in 1962, Nixon stormed out of his own news conference and sped off in a car driven by a young campaign worker named Pete Wilson. In the car that day, Mr. Wilson has said, the two men talked about how much conservative apathy hurt the campaign. If Mr. Schwarzenegger doesn't learn from this history, Mr. Wilson may have a similar conversation after next month's election.
siliconinvestor.com



To: JohnM who wrote (6789)9/5/2003 5:04:39 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793845
 
I really think this is the "Killer" issue. Since the media overwhelming agrees with the Dems on this, it doesn't show up as much as it will on election day.

WONDER LAND
John Kerry
Puts the Big Issue
Before the Voters
Would any Democrat really be able to protect America?

BY DANIEL HENNINGER - [WSJ.com] [OpinionJournal]
Friday, September 5, 2003 12:01 a.m.

John Kerry--winner in Vietnam of the Bronze Star, the Silver Star and three Purple Hearts--would rather talk about what voters want in a Commander in Chief than, say, the Arctic wildlife refuge. Who wouldn't?

Any normal person would. But the Democratic Party is not quite a normal party now. It has become the antiwar party. It is the hell-no-we-won't-ever-go-party. Which is why Howard Dean, the most antiwar candidate among the party's presidential hopefuls, is stretching his lead in polls based on phone calls to Democratic warrens, with the result reflecting what Salon.com's David Talbot calls "the party faithful's passionate mood."

Not all, but most Democratic professionals understand that in the wake of September 11 this course most likely would take the party's candidate to the bottom of the cliff in a general election. Amid Vietnam's agonies and a Watergate scandal cresting in the media, George McGovern lost by 18 million votes.

No matter. Activist Democrats have managed to make patriotism itself a wholly owned conservative value, burdening their candidates today with the historically unprecedented task of proving they're patriots too. In a recent poll for the moderate Democratic Leadership Council, Republicans held a 28-point lead over Democrats on the handling of terrorism and Iraq (among "married with kids" it's a whopping 45 to 48 points). This week Sen. Kerry said, "I learned that patriotism includes protest, not just military service." A fair statement, but not everyone would vote for it.

Thus, Sen. Kerry announced his candidacy this week in a place called Patriot's Point in South Carolina, in front of the USS Yorktown and surrounded by Vietnam veterans. It may well be that turning his campaign to national security is mainly intended to collect Democratic primary votes across the South, but whatever the calculation, we should thank the senator from Massachusetts for laying this issue on the table. This is a debate worth having.

Like it or not (and many Democrats do not), the U.S. is No. 1 in the world, and there is no serious No. 2. Having arrived here, it would be good to have competing visions of the U.S. role in the world put before the American people so that they may choose one with their vote.

Arguably, the only serious presidential-level debate on the U.S.'s world role in recent memory was between Dick Cheney and Joe Lieberman. Just three years ago, there was nothing more compelling on the foreign-policy mind than the Kyoto Treaty (some pollster should ask whether more than 3 people in 10 can say what that treaty was about). But now America's electorate is staring face-on into a foreign-policy sandstorm. No need to dance with "hypotheticals." September 11 was real; the Iraq war happened; al-Qaeda and the global terror network are real and North Korea is both nuclear and nuts. So, yes, we need a Commander in Chief. We've got one, but I look forward to hearing John Kerry and Joe Lieberman articulate the Democratic other.

In truth, there's no need to wait. Democratic politicians, academics and pundits have been articulating their alternative since 1966 when Sen. J. William Fulbright coined "the arrogance of power" and spoke of "practical cooperation for peace" with Russia, the need for "respectful partnership" with Western Europe and "abstention from the temptations of hegemony." In the years since, there has been a steady stream of books elaborating this view, with titles such as "The Paradox of American Power: Why the World's Only Superpower Can't Go It Alone" by Joseph Nye of Harvard's Kennedy School, or "The End of the American Era" by Charles Kupchak (both held positions in the Clinton administration).

This week, nearly four decades after Fulbright, Sen. Kerry said: "Pride is no excuse for making enemies overseas. It is time to return to the United Nations, not with the arrogance of Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz but with genuine respect. For the Bush Administration to reject the participation of allies and the UN is a miscalculation of colossal proportions."

For more than 20 years, Democrats have accused GOP presidents of forsaking "multilateral solutions" for what Richard Gephardt recently called "chest-beating unilateralism." This Democratic policy formula reappears no matter what the issue, whether Saddam or Soviet SS-20 ballistic missiles. During the great showdown with Manuel Noriega over the Panama Canal in 1989, Democrats urged Mr. Bush's father not to act without the support of the Organization of American States. Bush-41 invaded Panama, and two weeks later Noriega was in a Miami jail.

Democrats have been urging "cooperation" and "consultation" for 40 years. Maybe in this election we'll finally find out what this means. Democrats strongly imply that the mere process of talking with the U.N. or even with an enemy such as North Korea constitutes success. The cardinal Democratic sin in foreign policy is to "alienate our friends."

In his announcement address, Sen. Kerry said: "I voted to threaten the use of force to make Saddam Hussein comply with the resolutions of the United Nations. I believe that was right--but it was wrong to rush to war without building a true international coalition." What does this mean? Faced with a real threat to American security, will John Kerry wait, talk and consult, no matter how many months or years it takes until Jacques Chirac, Gerhard Schroeder and Kofi Annan are standing with him on the bridge?

I don't doubt that a President Kerry or even a President Dean would deploy the U.S. military on relatively modest missions--a Haiti or Liberia, or Somalia. But an Iraq war? A strike and follow-through against North Korea? After Vietnam and no matter that September 11 happened, and no matter what the merits, Mr. Kerry and the others (perhaps excepting Sen. Lieberman), give the impression they would not act, or not act in time. They would consult, specifically with France, Russia, Germany and the U.N. secretary general.

There is no way to know with certainty whether any of them would act on the scale of the Iraq war on behalf of American security. But Mr. Kerry has usefully raised the issue. It won't be sufficient to say they would have "done things differently." The real question is whether they would do it at all.
Mr. Henninger is deputy editor of The Wall Street Journal's editorial page. His column appears Fridays in the Journal and on OpinionJournal.com.