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To: Beachside Bill who wrote (259012)	9/4/2003 10:20:52 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 436258

Don't fight the Fed. Well it was wrong in reverse first Q of 2000 and wrong all of last year and wrong much of the other time since 2000. Don't fight the FED worked the last 6 months. Fck, don't fight the FED as a general rule. It took 12 frigging rate cuts before dont fight the fed started working. Now tell me how long "don't fight the Fed" continues to work. Look at long term interst rates. Either you believe Greenspan will force them down or you should be bailing your longs right fcking now. M

To: Beachside Bill who wrote (259012)	9/4/2003 10:42:56 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

BB: I don't agree with your interpretation of the cycle. Housing has been fired into hyperspace as a result of cheap mortgage rates. Those rates have reversed (at least until "Big Al" finds another rabbit). Real estate may cool out much quicker than most folks think possible. Not that my home territory is reflective of the general scene, but it has been on fire until very recently. This past month, values actually turned down slightly. In several areas of the US, the "carriage trade" real estate has also been cooling of late (residential demand tends to cool from the top down). A few months of increased interest rates could do considerable damage. Best, Earlie