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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (32246)	9/5/2003 12:19:54 AM
From: Little Joe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

"The reality: Greenspan and company will fight deflation will all the tools they have even if the government has to send a check of $10000 to every americans so they can spend on goooooods!" That is my view. They have already sent checks to Americans on at least two occassions and disguised them as "tax refunds" or "child credits". I think those who believe deflation is coming soon, totally fail to understand the minds of the politcal class. They will destroy the country before they take the blame for the mess we are in. If they had at any time along the way made the painful but necessary choices, they know they would have to accept responsibility for what they have done and would be summarily thrown out of office. To the political to lose power is unthinkable. So the con games will go on until the economy blows up and then we will likely see the deflation. Little joe

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (32246)	9/5/2003 1:07:36 AM
From: nspolar	Respond to of 36161

Claude, that kind of BS just won't cut it. In the LT such an approach doesn't work for a government, any more than it does for a private individual (to bounce checks). Ask Argentina. The markets are bigger than Greenspan, much bigger. I'm firmly in the deflationist camp, in general for the same reasons iso so noted. Interim we could through a period of hyperinflation, but in the end the deflationist side will win out. I just hope we don't have a total collapse, but it is somewhat difficult to see how that can be avoided. DEBT! ALMOST EVERYWHERE THERE IS EXCESSIVE DEBT! WHEN YOU READ THE NEWS, DAILY, THERE ARE MANY MORE NEEDS THAN THERE IS INCOME. IMHO. It is no secret I'm in the oil biz. There has been, still is, and for some time will continue to be industry wide efforts to trim costs. It is relentless, and the oil industry is supposedly somewhat supply constrained. That is not inflation. I remember the Carter and Reagan years, and that type of an approach was certainly not in vogue back then.

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (32246)	9/5/2003 11:03:59 AM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Claude. You over estimate the power of the FED. In fact, you sound like someone who implicitly believes in the socialist ethic that command and control economics can work in the LT. The demise of the old Soviet Union and it's satellite empire proves that's not the case. CBs and governments are straws in the wind compared to market forces. They still, fortunately I might add<g>, make up a minority of the GDP world wide with China and other Asian economies actually reducing the role and influence of government run enterprises vs the opposite trend in Europe and North America. And it's pretty obvious which civilization is rising and which is in decline!! Market forces will prevail and Greenspan's command and control FED (along with the other governmental and WS entities allied with it) will fail and fail dramatically to stem the overwhelming power of the emerging deflationary super cycle, in the years ahead. Looks like I'm late, now. Really have to run. Have a good day in the markets. Isopatch