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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (7092)	9/8/2003 12:27:38 PM
From: BWAC	Respond to of 25522

So the unit volume of chips done in the bubble resulted in record profits. Yet 3 years later an increased unit volume of chips barely equates to breakeven profits?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (7092)	9/8/2003 12:30:36 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

RE: "Where are we going?" 1. I see steady unit volume growth for semis. This is a return to historical and pre bubble behavior. 2. ASPs will continue to fall, with more and more chips taking on the look of commodities. This is historical behavior. 3. Total chip revenue will grow at rates that exceed GDP, but to achieve or exceed historical growth rates new products from technology advances must increase demand at rates that more than compensate for falling ASPs. I think this will happen. 4. Semi-equip revenue will grow in 2004 and accelerate to a typical upcycle pace in 2005, 2006, 2007 (2006, 2007, 2008 seems less probable, now) with peak stock prices in 2006.