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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (11493)	9/8/2003 5:18:28 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95615

Boxmakers . . . IDC raised its forecast for worldwide PC shipment growth for 2003 to 8.4 percent from 6.3 percent, after second quarter shipments rose a better-than-anticipated 9.6 percent to 33.9 million units. Aggressive pricing helped spark consumer and public sector demand, while business demand rose more gradually, IDC said. Meanwhile, shipment value is expected to decline 1.9 percent to $171.7 billion. For 2004, IDC cut its shipment forecast to 10.2 percent from 10.3 percent, but expects shipment value to rise 2.1 percent. IDC said it's seeing weakness in demand for personal computers from the public sector, which includes the federal government, state and local government, public schools and universities. PC shipments to the public sector jumped 34.8 percent in the second quarter, from the first quarter, and up 2.2 percent from the year-ago period. The research firm said there are "worrisome signs of a market that could turn negative in 2004, and possibly sooner." Semiconductor Equipment . . . Smith Barney upped its sector rating on the chip equipment group to an "overweight" from a "market weight" on recent evidence of acceleration in industry fundamentals and improving economic conditions. The brokerage now expects industry revenue to grow 20 percent in 2004 and 30 percent in 2005 compared with prior projections of 16 percent growth in 2004 and 26 percent growth in 2005. Smith Barney said favorites in the group include Applied Materials, Novellus Systems, Axcelis Technologies and Lam Research. Cymer is previewing company's 3rd quarter mid-quarer update, Morgan Stanley believes CYMI may provide slight upside guidance, but thinks it is likely in the stock. Although firm does not expect the mid quarter update to be a major catalysts for the shares. The firm is raising its price tgt to $55 from $42 on view stock can trade at 27x peak cycle earnings. Semiconductors . . . RF Micro upped its fiscal second-quarter outlook in a phone interview with Reuters, citing and improved product mix and rising customer demand. The company now expects to post a slight net profit for the quarter ending September, or breakeven on a per-share basis, versus an average analyst loss forecast of a loss of 3 cents a share. Revenue is expected to grow at least 10 percent to the middle $140 million range, the report said, versus analyst projections of $135.8 million. Proxim target raised to $3 at Lehman ahead of tomorrow's mid-quarter update and following recent checks with mgmt, Lehman expects a positive update from this wireless LAN and WAN value play. Given firm's view that Proxim's restructuring is proceeding crisply, supported by its recent $40 million cash infusion, firm is raising its price target to $3 (2x sales ex-cash). GlobeSpan Virata upped to Peer Perform from Underperform at Thomas Weisel is incrementally more positive on GSPN given the potential revenue diversification and integration possibilities. After taking end market fundamentals into consideration, firm believes GSPN shares are now trading at a valuation that makes investment more attractive. Broadcom ships first single-chip Wi-Fi solution, the Broadcom BCM4317. Broadcom's AirForce One wireless LAN solutions are the size of a postage stamp and consume up to 97% less power than other Wi-Fi solutions on the market. The size and efficiency of the one-chip offering makes it practical for the first time for a wide range of pocketsize electronic devices, including PDAs, cell phones, digital cameras, MP3 players etc. SanDisk estimates and target raised at WR Hambrecht. The firm raises their 2004 rev/EPS ests well above consensus and raises their target to $74 from $62. The firm says NAND flash is expanding rapidly from DSC to USB flash, cell phone, and other applications, and as demand outstrips supply, firm believes that SNDK is at the epicenter of this activity. Adams Harkness raises targets for RF Micro and Sawtek. Adams Harkness reiterates their Strong Buy ratings and raises their targets for RFMD and SWKS (both to $15 from $10), as they continue to believe that the upgrade cycle to new color and data-enabled devices in the wireless handset market is underway. The firm feels that many of the issues that hampered the industry during the early part of this year (SARS, Asia softness) are largely over; firm also says Buy-rated Kopin and SMDI should benefit from the increased positive newsflow as well. robblack.com