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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: pezz who wrote (38035)9/9/2003 12:55:42 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Pezz, now you are poking my monkeys in the eye. It isn't that all investors trading are monkeys, it's just that we don't really know, even if we succeed with 1000 trades in a row, that we aren't. Luck and brains in the complex world of speculative trading on technical analysis are indistinguishable.

Which is not to say that some people and computers don't have excellent brains and really can predict the next moves. It's just that a winning trader doesn't know whether they are smart or lucky. Even if they are smart, it's survival of the fittest and a smarter computer might be logging on right now, ready for battle. I'm sure that once upon a time, a really smart chimp was The Man. Now, they'd be laughed at on the David Letterman show. It's a tough, brutal and short life as alpha male. There's always a smarter one coming along.

If one is confused by that analysis, one should suspect that one is not in the smart computer category, but is in one of the smarter human or monkey categories. Depending on how difficult it was to decipher, one should suspect that one trends towards either the monkey or brilliant human category.

Mqurice [definitely chimpoid - fur on arms and prehensile paws being suspicious]

Meanwhile, the Aztecs [loser chimpoids] are battling to catch up to the Jedis.
Jedis $416
Aztecs $381

The Uncle Al, Uncle Sam tag team is taking a breather having filled the aether with dollars and made them very, very cheap to borrow. Japan is mixing it with the "no brainer" carry trade. I suspect, once again, that the no brainers will lose to those with brains. Right now, the Q is ahead on points.