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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (645)	9/9/2003 9:23:41 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

i think China will demonstrate their power in some way my suspicion is that they are behind much of the gold and silver rallies pushing into positive ground the bond issue is a thorny one by selling out a portion of their portfolio, then hurt TBonds and USDollar, compounding their loss this will end very badly Bad for the economy? Of course. But what about stocks? If traders bail out of bonds like they did out of stocks in the past few years, then the funds have to go somewhere and stocks seem to be one of the places to "hide". We saw what happened with a weak dollar earlier in the year---that went against all the logic of low dollar means weaker stocks that seemed to have been the overwhelming consensus. FWIW--I am bearish on stocks (for now) and planning on getting very short on bonds soon--Argentina might give one the perfect opportunity. However, there exists a possibility that a bond collapse could lead to an initial MONSTEROUS explosion to the upside in Stocks as bond holders run for cover..even if it is short term supply/demand imbalance that is short lived. That is what concerns me as someone who is short stocks. It can happen, especially since no experts seem to suggest such a possibility...and that is key! Just like it happened earlier in the year but this time could be bigger. To me, the only sure safe bet seems to be short 10 & 30year bonds in the intermediate/long term.