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Strategies & Market Trends : Befriend the Trend Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dr. Stoxx who wrote (31160)	9/10/2003 8:25:28 AM
From: Dominick	Respond to of 39683

IBM will trade sideways until Sept 30th between 85 and 90. Price on Sept 30th will be 88.50. I hope.

To: Dr. Stoxx who wrote (31160)	9/10/2003 8:48:23 AM
From: KB	Respond to of 39683

C with a little upward movement. Close at 95.15 on 9/30. KB

To: Dr. Stoxx who wrote (31160)	9/10/2003 9:49:57 AM
From: Bald Eagle	Respond to of 39683

I say sideways, closes at 85.50

To: Dr. Stoxx who wrote (31160)	9/10/2003 10:36:39 AM
From: TraderWithNoName	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 39683

IBM will be out of business by then....$1.37

To: Dr. Stoxx who wrote (31160)	9/11/2003 11:41:52 AM
From: Dr. Stoxx	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39683

CHART CONTEST (with FREE prize giveaway!!) ====================================================================================== Question #1: IBM is up against former resistance at the 90.00 level. Which is the more likely scenario? a) IBM breaks out and races to 100 by September 30th b) IBM breaks down and crashes to 80 by September 30th c) IBM trades sideways until September 30th Question #2: What exact price (dollars and cents) will IBM be trading at on September 30th? IBM Chart: stockcharts.com[w,a]dacly... (use whatever parameters and indicators suit you best) ====================================================================================== WINNING ENTRANT WILL RECEIVE: -1 FREE MONTH of either of our two Newsletter Services, your choice -- a $29.95 to $49.95 value!! (see: befriendthetrend.com for details) ====================================================================================== CONTEST RULES: only 1 entry per participant no duplicate answers please feel free to add reasons for your answers all entries must be received by midnight Sunday, 09/14/03 winner will be determined by 10/10/03 (I'm travelling before then) FREE MONTH subscription to begin 10/13/03 OPTIONAL: please PM me your email address for direct contest notification QUESTIONS: email Dr. Stoxx (drstoxx@befriendthetrend.com)

To: Dr. Stoxx who wrote (31160)	9/11/2003 11:41:38 PM
From: Victor Lazlo	Respond to of 39683

ok Doc, here goes, Q 1 - c Trades sideways. Q 2 - Sep 30 it trades ( closes ?? ) at 83.43 Victor

To: Dr. Stoxx who wrote (31160)	9/14/2003 7:16:23 AM
From: Andrew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39683

$81.15 Sept 30 closes just below 85 on this Friday. Further I see 65 before 100

To: Dr. Stoxx who wrote (31160)	9/16/2003 3:17:20 AM
From: Herring	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 39683

My IBM amateur opinion: I will look at this in 3 time zones: Weekly, Daily, 15 minute ignoring fundamentals. Weekly: The stock is trading at the outer bollinger band & strongly overbought (80s). Even if we can break the 90 mark (which is about where the outer bollinger band is sitting) there is going to be strong pressure by the bears to pull this back in line. Weekly shows overbought. Daily chart: Recent strong moves above the bollinger bands which got pulled back to the ma. The bulls were trying to pull it back to the outer bollinger band but failed. MACD is on the decline - bad thing. It does appear that the bears are taking ownership. Recent increase in volume is on the decline. Stochastics still above 50 so the stock is not in oversold areas but have more opportunity for downside. 15 Minute: M formation at the 90 shows very strong resistance. Volume is slightly declining. MACD or stochastics for this time frame is useless other than for timing the stock, but in the short term the MACD is also negative which is more of a confirmation that the 90 mark will be a tough resistance to break. All three time frames look either overbought or on the decline. The overall market trend (technicals on the NASD) are weak and the market is looking to be due to profit taking. It does not look good headed in to historically one of the weakest months (October) in stock market history. My prediction is therefore: IBM will head downwards towards the 80 mark. There is support at 80 (look at daily beg/Aug & beg/Jul) so if it hits 80 it will likely mover upward. I predict the stock at $82.50 by September 30th. Warning: I am very much a rookie technical analyst so please indicate where you think I am wrong. Thanks, Herring (long time lurker)