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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NOW who wrote (668)	9/10/2003 1:27:09 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

COF seems to be on the Goldman upgrade, but the mortgage and homebuilder market is weak, even with the improvement in bonds. Strange divergences: Briefing.com 10:02 ET Mortgage group under pressure following NCC and NLY warnings and Wall Street Journal article : Among the names getting hit early are NFI -2.80, TMA -1.90, CFC -1.69, GDW -1.58, GPT -1.36, ANH -1.10, LEND -1.08. The Homebuilding group is also under pressure with the Index trading down 2.4% led lower by HOV -1.80, PHM -1.78, CTX -1.75, LEN -1.60, KBH -1.60.

To: NOW who wrote (668)	9/10/2003 2:19:31 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

credit bubble dispute reminds me of drug rehab lectures the more a family argues over whether Uncle Sammy is really an alcoholic, the more likely he is just that AN ALCOHOLIC the more the markets dispute and argue over whether the Trez bond market, the Agency bond market, the Housing sector, are a bubble or not, the more like they are just that BOND BUBBLES the truth lies in the denials, and the center stage of the discussion if they were not bubbles, we would not be talking about them it is really that simple where is the logic in a 30% residential rise in value when we are seeing widespread asset fractures, job losses, stock losses, pension decimation, etc? in past recessions, housing took its medicine, with 20-30% pullbacks in prices this time, with Secy Inflation GreenScheiss, we saw the opposite which tells me, in the next few years, we will see a whopping 40-50% correction in realty prices heck, Sir John Templeton expects a 90% correction the curveball is that housing is improperly seen as a hard asset its value is primarily determined by mortgage finance funding and its availability take away the mortgage funds, and watch this hard asset behave like what it is... a bond derivative I call real estate "the hard asset impostor" led by MBS rallies and a flight from paper assets trouble is, the flight went straight into more paper assets, mortgages damn, I better be careful dont wanna sound "unintelligent" somebody pass the toilet paper / jim